Analysis
Andaman Faces
Kargil-type of Invasion India may lose significant portions of
its island territory
in the Bay of Bengal unless it moves on a war-footing.
by MH Ahsan
The
572 big and small Andaman and Nicobar Islands that are of enormous economic and
strategic value to India are increasingly vulnerable to a Kargil-type foreign
invasion, and the Union government has no policies to prevent this.
The Indian Navy is setting up the Far Eastern Naval Command (FENC) off Port
Blair in the islands to give it "blue-water" status but naval officials admit
that the strategic command could become vulnerable if the foreign invasion is
not checked.
One-and-a-half-year-old official estimates of the foreigners in the Andamans top
50,000 but officials say the numbers are larger. The mainland Indian and
aboriginal population is roughly 4 lakh though official figures are 2 lakh.
Foreigners from Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have permanently settled in
the islands using fake Indian ration cards while citizens of Thailand, China,
Indonesia and Malaysia have migrated temporarily to plunder the natural
resources and leave. "Port Blair, Havelock Islands, Diglipur, Middle Nicobar,
Campbell's Bay, Neil Islands and Rangott are mostly overrun by foreigners," said
an official.
The nightmare for officials is a Chinese takeover of the Andamans. China has
already leased Coco Islands from Myanmar and set up a listening post against
Indian naval activity in the Eastern naval command and the Bay of Bengal and the
missile testing facilities in Orissa.
Naval officers say that China could enforce a sea denial on India in an
emergency from its warships stationed in Coco and other islands leased from
Myanmar. Coco Island and the northern-most tip of the Andamans are separated by
just 18 kilometers of sea. Officials say that Coco is visible from the Andamans
and plenty of Chinese fishermen can be seen in its port. Chinese fishermen also
sell consumer goods to the Andaman people in mid sea.
Officials say that China is encouraging the Burmese to take up residence in the
Andamans. The Burmese and the illegal Bangladeshi migrants are not known usually
to establish themselves in the islands directly from their home countries. "They
infiltrate into India in the Northeast states or West Bengal and pick up ration
cards and other residency documents, head to Kolkata, and take a 500 rupees
bunker-class passage on the boat to the Andamans," an official said. "There is
little or nothing you can do about this."
Bangladeshi migrants, for example, identify themselves as Indian Bengalis. They
provide false addresses and backgrounds in the mainland. Ranganath, a poor
Bangladeshi from Chittagong, told this reporter that he reached the islands
after crossing into West Bengal and acquiring Indian documents.
In 1995, the Indian government decided to settle some 300 islands with the
mainland population to act as its "eyes and ears". The foreigners have taken
advantage of this policy. The worst-case scenario is that the Burmese could grab
some 20 islands close to one another and raise Myanmar's flag under Chinese
instigation.
"China could then sue for arbitration and have the Burmese keep 10 islands as
settlement," a naval officer said. "That would be our worst day. China would
pose a direct threat to the Far Eastern Command when it is operational and
thereby limit India's maritime maneuverability in the east."
And this is the position despite the presence of a joint command of the Indian
Navy, Army, Air Force and coast guards in the remote island Union territory.
Why can't the Indian Navy and coast guards prevent Kargil-type squatting in the
Andamans? One reason is that the majority of squatters carry Indian documents
and don't come clandestinely to the island. Also, the Indian administration has
barely penetrated a large number of the islands. The Andamans straddle the
southeastern part of the Bay of Bengal in a narrow broken arc 800 kilometers
long. The local administration is short of men and boats to access this huge
island mass. Where police stations exist, there are no jeeps for the policemen.
And finally, the Indian Navy and coast guards find it physically impossible to
police all the waters around the islands. "You need local intelligence and
satellite surveillance," said a naval officer. "No enemy is big enough to fight
the Indian Navy. But you cannot have an Indian destroyer going after a squatter
boat. And the Indian coast guards are grossly under-equipped."
The result is a sort of free for all. Gunrunning is a major occupation. Indian
military intelligence busted one such racket in Operation Leech in February 1998
but it is business as usual now, officials concede. "Arms smuggling is a very
profitable business in this region," said a naval officer.
But the plunder of natural resources also provides big returns. Rare teak trees
have been felled and logged out. Medicinal plants growing only on the island
have been taken away. Forest produces are being illegally shipped out.
Agricultural land is being grabbed.
But officials say that the trading of shells of rare aquatic species is the most
alarming. The Indian Supreme Court banned the trading of 20 shell types but it
carries on nevertheless. "The Andaman biosphere is being destroyed rapidly,"
said an official.
Part of the problem is that India was double-minded about retaining the islands
until the May 1998 Pokhran explosions. Top officials say that the original plan
was to abandon Andaman and Nicobar Islands after exploiting its natural
resources.
In 1998, the Vajpayee government woke up to the islands' huge strategic
importance. They sit aside the vital sea-lanes of the Straits of Malacca through
which 300 tankers and merchant ships passed daily for the mega economies of
Japan and the Asian tigers from the energy-rich Middle East.
Simultaneously, the government realized Andaman's massive tourism potential. Its
beaches are pristine and its waters warm and dark. And yet, Indian government
representatives in the islands look upon their posting as a Kalapani
punishment. The Lieutenant-Governor, N.N.Jha, a former Indian foreign-service
officer allied to the BJP, has failed to energize the administration to develop
the islands.
Parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands could be lost forever unless the Indian
government moves on a war-footing.
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The
572 big and small Andaman and Nicobar Islands that are of enormous economic and
strategic value to India are increasingly vulnerable to a Kargil-type foreign
invasion, and the Union government has no policies to prevent this. 
