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Analysis
India-Pakistan "Bhai –
Bhai"
by Col. Rahul
K. Bhonsle
 The
Indo Pak Joint Statement at Havana has created a furor over setting up of a
Joint Mechanism, “to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and
investigations”, between the two countries. With relations between the two
countries having deteriorated particularly after the terrorist strike in Mumbai
which killed over 185 people and remarks of the Indian Ministry of External
Affairs on Baluchistan, there was increased skepticism on both sides of even
resumption of the peace dialogue. The out of the box declaration at Havana
however jolted analysts out of their strategic stupor. There were wide spread
protests in the Indian strategic community particularly by former intelligence
sleuths and foreign service officials who saw the move as a sell out to Pakistan
by the Prime Minister charmed by President Musharraf into signing on the dotted
line. It is firmly believed in India that the Pakistani intelligence agency ISI
was a state within itself and was not under control of even the Army. Under the
circumstances the skeptics argued that expectations that it could be reined in
may be far fetched. Some even suspected the unusual bonhomie between the two
leaders as they warmly greeted each other at Havana. There is thus a need to
place the issues in perspective.
Indo Pakistan relations have been in a positive direction for almost a decade or
so. Pakistan recognized the limitations of its terror policy way back in 1996,
when elections were successfully held in Jammu and Kashmir both for the assembly
and the parliament. Kargil 1999 was one last fling by the generals in Islamabad
to redeem themselves before history. Here too they met with a resounding
failure. 9/11 changed global perceptions on terrorism and the process of the
state directly sponsoring terrorist camps in Pakistan came to a halt in 2002,
during the opening phases of Operation Parakram. However there were no
efforts to dissuade non state actors from conducting such training. During the
interim period there was a change of government in India which only spurred the
peace process, opening up the borders from Kashmir to Gujarat. However
intermittent terrorist attacks in India were becoming detrimental to sustaining
the process.
The internal situation within both the countries has also changed over the
years. Pakistan has seen the growth of terrorism on its Western frontiers, with
the Frontier Areas as well as Baluchistan on the boil for over four years now.
The growth of groups such as Jamaat ud Dawa, the political sponsor of
Lashkar e Taiyyaba which taking advantage of the administrative vacuum in
the earthquake hit areas of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir enhanced its social
capital was also a matter of concern. Pakistan increasingly came in the global
eye amongst the first 10 failed states this year. There was no choice with the
Pakistan President but to seek a joint mechanism on terrorism despite the
underlying irony.
India on the other hand saw an increase in terrorist attacks in the hinterland
from Varanasi to Bangalore, in which the role of indigenous groups was more than
evident, though not politically expedient to accept. This perhaps made it
apparent to the Government that it had to put its own counter terrorism house in
order.
The process of working of the mechanism will be clarified over the next few
months as the Foreign Secretaries thrash out the structure and time lines
towards tangible results. There are a number of precedence to go by. The Armies
of both countries have a hot line between the respective Director General
Military Operations which is activated in a crisis. Similar hot lines could be
considered. There are existing norms between the US forces in Afghanistan and
the Pakistani forces which could be modified apart from other processes which
will enable greater confidence building on both sides of the terrorism divide.
This will definitely send a powerful message to the terrorist organizations in
Pakistan that they cannot take state support for granted and may provide the
Army an escape valve to rein in organizations which are inimical to the new
joint mechanism. However the situation is extremely complex as Pakistan is
facing elections, controlled or otherwise in 2007 and signs of strife on its
Western borders have not receded. There is pressure on President Musharraf to
leave the, “twin peaks” of power. Thus actual implementation of the mechanism
may be slow over the next few months.
The path to peace between India and Pakistan is strewn with many thorns. Some
like the Sir Creek will be resolved over the next few months, as else India and
Pakistan stand to lose control of the waters in the area which will be
internationalized. Siachen will release a dividend of Rs 1000 Crore per year for
India; however the Indian Army is not prepared to give up the commanding heights
it occupies now, but can be cajoled or coerced into an agreement. But it is the
Joint Mechanism on terrorism which would provide the guiding light towards
lasting peace in the Sub Continent. It is a creative idea driven by two Heads of
state with the hope of success rather than fears of failures of the past which
deserves a chance, so let us give a try for, India - Pakistan, “Bhai – Bhai”.
September 24, 2006
Top | Analysis
The Week of September 24, 2006
Is Osama Dead? Never Mind, Terrorism is Still
Alive! by Rajinder Puri
Mahatma Gandhi: Lost and Forgotten in India
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Confluence of Poetry, Evolution, Economics and
Terrorism by Gaurang Bhatt, MD
India-Pakistan "Bhai-Bhai" by Col.
Rahul K. Bhonsle
Does Human Culture Matter in the Modern World?
by TA Ramesh
Moral Policing by the State by Bijoyeta Das
Wailing Womb, Weeping Heart by Satya Chaitanya
Mahalaya: Invoking the Mother Goddess by
Aparna Chatterjee
The Desecration of Temples and Other Acts by CR
Gopalakrishna
Heaven on Earth Ravaged by VK Joshi
Chemistry of Tulasi by Dr. V. Sankaran Nair
How to make Your Signature Lucky? by Pt.
Aaadietya Pandey
Dr. Varghese Kurien: Idol for Indian Youth by
Bijoyeta Das
From Drums of Phantom to SMS by VK Joshi
Gandhigiri Works! Lage Raho Munna Bhai by Ragini
Puri
Remembering Hrishikesh Mukherjee by Yamini
Ayyagari
Normal Childhood Behavior Misconstrued by
Gary Direnfeld
HIV /AIDS - Prevention and Creating Awareness -
Role of Media by Jyoti Singh
Seeking a Say in Sex by Lubana Yasmin Palia
The New Womanomics by Sreedevi Jacob
Grannies Get Together by Elayne Clift
Women's March to Freedom by Mehru Jaffer
Breaking Tradition's Clay Feet by Surekha
Kadapa-Bose
Yohhh! Boloji by Dr. Amitabh Mitra
God's Grace by Arya Bhushan
Affirming Diversity, Resisting Decisiveness
by Julia Dutta
Why I am Missing my Roots? by Anisa Chaudhary
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