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Analysis
Pakistan's Dilemma
of Strategic Identity
by Col. Rahul
K. Bhonsle
The events in
Pakistan over the past few months appear intriguing even to perspicacious
Islamabad watchers. The Establishment’s policy of running with the hares and
hunting with the hounds since 9/11 has come up for intense internal scrutiny.
The many terrorist groups to which Pakistan is a resident country such as the Al
Qaeda, the Taliban and the Lashkar e Taiyyaba have for the first time openly
expressed their lack of confidence in State policy by taking on the Army. The
attack on the Punjab Regimental Training Centre in Dargi was symbolic in more
ways than one. Perceptible observers did not miss the message which the largely
rebellious Pathan diaspora of Waziristan dominated by the Taliban is attempting
to convey to the Punjabi dominated government, that retribution will be sharp,
focused and will cause heavy casualties. President Musharraf is no longer the
sole target, but it is the military which is coming under fire undoubtedly a
result of the attack on the mosque in Chingai, Bajaur killing 85 people.
State duplicity is thus under intense pressure and Pakistan would have to sooner
or later resolve its dilemma of strategic identity resting in the opposites of
either being a moderate Islamic state aligned itself towards Western democracy
or a military theocracy pandering to the wishes of the Mullahs. Resolution of
the impasse can come about only through tectonic shifts in Pakistani polity
which may see a new order emerging in the country over the next few years.
Balancing strategic alignment with China is another aspect though seemingly less
challenging.
Materially Pakistan has benefited substantially with its policy of deft
duplicity of balancing the West, Islamic fundamentalism and China. The smart
wages of this policy are evident with the largesse of $ 3.6 billion in military
aid received from the USA for operations from January 2002 till August 2005, 25
% of its Defence budget. A further $ 900 million are expected from Pentagons’
massive $ 439 billion FY 2007 budget from reimbursements to coalition supporting
nations. The release of F 16 aircraft with advanced avionics as per latest
indications will keep the armed forces satiated for a long time to come,
ensuring the junta’s hold on power beyond the 2007 elections. China’s largesse
is even more impressive, containing as it does the development of Gwadar and the
infrastructure around it, six major nuclear power plants over the next decade or
so and cooperation in the field of missile and defence technology.
However resolution of the internal stability–instability paradox is proving more
challenging as its definition lies in non material aspects of security resting
in development, identity resolution, assimilation of the margins and
mainstreaming modern human values. The lop sided development of the central core
of Punjab and parts of Sindh and the North West Frontier Province at the cost of
the lesser developed Western areas of Baluchistan and Federally Administered
Tribal Areas over the years has led to long term fissures amongst people who are
increasingly exposed to the pulls of modernism. The states answer of
securitization has only created greater dissonance. The signs of discord are
ominous.
The resurgence of violence in Baluchistan after the killing of Akbar Bugti was
rapidly brought under control. The state after its initial over joyous reaction
quickly reviewed its stance to denote it as a possible accidental detonation of
the cave, a story which has seen no takers. But the outward calm is waiting to
explode as the leadership of the Baluchi resistance comes to grips with the
challenges of coordinating a multi faceted tribal-militancy. The periodic
strikes at gas pipelines, the symbol of Baluchi struggle against the Pakistani
state have kept alive the roots of insurgency which are likely to erupt at an
opportune time in the future.
The curious manner in which it has brought about peace in Northern Waziristan by
a virtual surrender to the fundamentalists will once again prove to be a
temporary reprieve. Reports indicate that a joint jirga of the Taliban in North
and South Waziristan has appointed Mullah Muhammad Nazir, on the list of wanted
in Afghanistan and an associate of Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan, chief Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar, as the chief of the militants in the area. These elements have
already launched a campaign of, “tax” collection and imposed their draconian
laws impinging on individual freedoms. With major stakes of the United States as
well as the European powers now hinging on success in Afghanistan, a clash with
fundamentalist forces is inevitable. Pakistan will have to thus make a strategic
choice between the Taliban and the West.
Lack of political debate in the country with a democracy best explained as, “establishment
sponsored” has led to inadequate explorations of parallel policy options in
a monolithic decision making structure. Thus long term policy is being
sacrificed for narrow parochial gains suiting elitist interests leading to
emergence of two diametrically opposite trajectories. Till Pakistan is able to
resolve this strategic predicament, the country will continue to remain in a
state of disarray in the years ahead.
December 10, 2006
Top | Analysis
The Week of December 10, 2006
Half a Brain and Whole Lies ... by Gaurang
Bhatt, MD
The Manmohanomics Algorithm! by Naagesh
Padmanaban
Pakistan's Dilemma of Strategic Identity by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
The Battle of the Begums by Dr. Subhash
Kapila
Balancing the Scales of Justice by Ishita
Russell
Development at the Cost of Life: Do we want this?
by Siddhartha P Saikia
Criminalization of Politics is Threat to Nation
by Bijay Shankar Patel
Gandhari: A Curse and a Prayer by Satya
Chaitanya
Was Draupadī ever disrobed? by Pradip
Bhattacharya
Ganga Plains: World's Largest Flood Plains
by VK Joshi
Neurobiology as a Career by Pallavi
Bhattacharya
Buddhaland: The Inner and Outer Journey by
Julia Dutta
This! The River of Life by Julia Dutta
A Rebel of Innocence – 2 by Ashwini Ahuja
Sun for the Bones by Neeta Lal
Sustainable Water Future by Neena
Bhandari
I Work Hard - So Why Ain't I Rich by Michael
Levy
Invest with a Genius by Heinz Riehl
Hindu-Muslim Laagey Raho
by Ramendra Kumar
Walk to Freedom by Elsa Sherin Mathews
Mine-blown Lives by Fatima Chowdhury
Anti-Woman Court by Amabelle Plaza-Laminero
New Face of Arab Women Priyanka Sacheti
Miss Tibet for the National Cause by Andrée-Marie
Dussault
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