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Analysis
It is a question that
has very disturbing answers. Three years of war
have torn Iraq. The British medical journal, Lancet, says that nearly 6,55,000
have been killed. The United States says 1,50,000 Iraqis have been killed. Over
3,000 American soldiers have been killed in action and 20,000 have been wounded.
Around $380 billion have been spent on the war and another $100 will be required
in the next one year. At the end of it, no objective seems to have been
achieved. Iraq lies shattered, terrorist groups have become more aggressive,
suicide attacks on troops have increased and the U.S. soldiers are wondering why
they are fighting a war that no one wants. It is a question that strikes
1,66,000 coalition troops and 3,07,800 Iraqi troops everyday. After three years
Bush’s army is yet to find weapons of mass destruction that they went to search
for. Worse still, a report
of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence found no evidence of Iraq’s links
to Al-Qaeda before the war. It said that Saddam’s quest for supremacy in the
region was motivated by his fears about Iran. British intelligence
had also reportedly said that “intelligence and facts were being fixed around
the policy” of removing Saddam accusing him of being in conjunction with
terrorism and possession of weapons of mass destruction. The occupation by US
forces in Iraq has become a disaster as more body bags arrive everyday. There
are daylight attacks against U.S. forces and deadly ones at that. President George Bush
said that his administration wanted to ensure that Iraq could govern itself,
become self-sustaining and be capable of defending itself. After three years,
none of these have happened and there are no signs of it happening in the near
future. As things stand, whenever the US forces leave, there will be anarchy, as
militant and sectarian groups will take over. It is just a question now of how
to withdraw after carving out a face saving situation. United Nations
secretary general, Kofi Annan, caustically said that the situation created by
the occupation was worse than that which prevailed when Saddam Hussien ruled
Iraq. Can anything be more ironical? It certainly is a
case of a war gone horribly wrong. The initial idea was
to eliminate Sadaam who was an icon of sorts in the Muslim world as he wielded
raw power. Having captured him, they wanted to hand over the government to a
puppet government of sorts wanting to move away to safer US bases in Kuwait so
that it could “supervise” the country, continue to have a hold on its rich oil
resources and ultimately make its influence felt in the region as it has done in
Kuwait. But as things have turned out, this also is not going to happen.
As the reality of a
doomed war in Iraq and a doomed prospect at home dawns on Bush, he no more uses
the phrase, “Let’s stay the course,” to emphasize that it is not pulling out of
Iraq till the war on terror is not over. Staying the course or pumping in
additional forces is not going to help. Even the Republican
lawmakers are questioning whether the administration’s approach in Iraq is
yielding the desired results. Real democracy, for instance, seems a far cry
away. Withdrawal is not
easy. If it is done in a hurry, it will be a resounding slap on the Bush
administration. After spending millions of dollars and sacrificing the lives of
so many soldiers, it is going to be tough to pull out. So the promises of a
democratic Iraq, rebuilding of Iraq and waging the war against terrorism
continue. It seems like excuses for staying on and for making a mistake seem
like a good intention. Pulling out is also
not easy as there are too many questions to be answered. What excuse will the US
make when it withdraws before winning the war? Why has security turned from bad
to worse despite the allied forces? Why is the present elected government so
weak and how can they hold once forces leave? Will a pullback now
destroy the reputation of the United States as a global cop? If Iraq does not
emerge as a model of a modern, democratic and secular Muslim country, what was
the point of the war? Robert Hathaway,
Director, Asia Programme at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars
in Washington DC, says that the United States cannot easily walk away from the
mess it has created in Iraq simply by pulling out. To many, both in the United
States and outside, it is quite clear that abandoning Iraq now will have
disastrous consequences. At the end of the
tunnel, there is little light for Bush to feel good about. More than anyone
else, he knows he is walking a lonely path. History will be harsh in judging him
as more will die in an unwanted directionless war. The electorate by
voting for the Democrats in the last election gave their verdict. However, Bush
defied public sentiment against the war by deciding to send an additional 21,000
troops to Iraq. Well-known Republican Senator Chuck Hagel labels Bush’s move to
further increase troops as dangerously irresponsible. A poll by the
prestigious Pew Research Centre for the People and the Press shows that 61 per
cent of Americans oppose an increase of troop levels in Iraq. Bush would better
if he cared to listen. Democrat Senator Carl
Levin, who is likely to be chairman of the next Senate Armed Forces Committee,
warned that the United States was getting deeper and deeper into a hole in Iraq.
Newly elected Speaker
Nancy Pelosi echoed a common sentiment when she said that staying the course has
not helped the United States to become safer, it has not kept the US commitment
to its troops or made Iraq more stable. She said that at least 30,000 troops
must be withdrawn every year. She has a good reason to demand that as the US
Troops are seen as an occupation force and is like a magnet for terrorists in
Iraq. It would be foolhardy
for Bush to think that his protracted war in Iraq would lead to a dramatic
political change in the war torn country where democratic forces will triumph,
where sectarian violence would be no more and where the leaders would mature to
pull Iraq out of the dark whirlpool it is currently caught in. A report by the U.S.
Defence Department warns that Iraq could be caught in a civil war. Kidnappings
are common. So are bombings and suicide attacks. The Sunni resistance has put
various pockets out of bounds for the U.S. army. Coalition forces were
the targets of over 65 attacks in Iraq. As many as 6,000 Iraqi policemen have
died since the U.S. occupation. No wonder, 20 per cent of the force were
quitting every year and 40 per cent were absent. Morgues are overflowing with
bodies. The trauma of a
battered nation struggling to find hope is showing in different ways. As the
Iraq team inched into the soccer finals of the Asian Games at Doha in Qatar,
there was a frenzy never seen before. Work almost grinded to a halt to watch it
on TV. There were fireworks decorating the skyline at night as Iraqis
celebrated. This was one straw in the wind they were clutching on to as it had
hope. When the team lost the final, the TV channels chose to highlight the highs
of the victory match and called the team “heroes”. Suddenly, soccer was
a source of new hope in a country pockmarked by war, uncertainty and
desperation. It even became a source of sudden nationalism. When one sees the
tragedy of a battered country driven by sectarianism, one can see tragic
meanings in new patterns of behavior. In Britain, Prime
Minister, Tony Blair, tries to keep his chin high ruling out any attempts to
look at the reality of having lost the war. Just as in the United States,
Britain today grapples with terrorist attacks and threats, anger against the
war, stricter immigration controls and repressive laws. It all points one finger
at the failed war in Iraq. In early January,
Bush hinted his new Iraq policy would set goals to help Iraq ease sectarian
tensions, stabilize the country politically and economically. These included
drawing more Sunnis into the political process, finalize distribution of oil
revenue and make former Baath Party members more comfortable. Sounds good. Bush
administration officials said they would like to set a realistic timetable for
Iraq to accomplish this. Incidentally, all the earlier timetables have
collapsed. No wonder, there is skepticism especially among Democrats.
Pelosi along with
Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate have made it clear to Bush that
they were against sending more troops to Iraq. The issue of body bags coming
home is increasingly becoming and explosive and angry issue. Pelosi said that Bush
better justify why he wants to increase his troops, spend more on the war and
also show the nation how the present troops are being supported right now.
Pelosi’s tone said it all. She said that the Republicans had till now given Bush
blank cheques with no oversight, no standards and no conditions. In his annual state
of the union address, Bush was unrepentant of what he had done in Iraq insisting
that he should be allowed to send in additional troops and give the war another
chance. Though he chanted the old mantra of how America was at war with
terrorism, it seems Americans are now convinced that Iraq is not the place to
fight it and going there was a terrible blunder. What is the way out?
Hamid Ansari, India’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iran says one way out to
rebuild Iraq is to get both its neighbors and the invading powers to meet and
work out a realistic solution. He feels that an atmosphere of accommodation has
to be generated and platforms created for dialogue. Again, despite the risk of
repetition, it is not going to be easy. Iraq after all, is a country with
multiple identities: ethnic, tribal and sectarian. And let us not forget the
bloodbath between the Shias and Sunnis. They all have to be on the same table
working at realistic solutions. There is no other way. While this is done,
it is time to ask the United Nations to rise to its role, intervene and stop the
damage. It is time to ask the rest of the world to step in, spread the message
of peace, understanding and tolerance and woo the angry Muslims. It is time to
rebuild Iraq into a modern nation that will be a model for other Muslim
countries. Finally, a few
pertinent questions. What has the war achieved? Has it ended up destroying the
secular fabric of Iraq forever? Has it revived the Taliban and the Al-Queda? Has it ended up
creating intense hatred in the Muslim world towards the Christian dominated
west? And, more importantly, has it increased the terror threat? Has it not
destroyed the U.S. image of being a global cop? When one thinks of these
factors, victory seems just too far away in the distance to be seen.
January 27, 2007 |
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