Nepal the mountain
republic of South Asia has been doomed with elections to the
constitutional assembly having been postponed twice so far. While
inadequate preparations and political intransigence was the cause
for postponement of elections the first two times, demands by the
Madhesi parties threatened the same third time around.
The crisis was finally
defused after prolonged negotiations and a Bandh in the Terai
which extended for a fortnight, bringing Nepal virtually to a
standstill. Finally on 28 February the deadlock was broken as
Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala on behalf of the Seven-Party
alliance (SPA) coalition government and leaders of the three Madhesi
parties affiliated to the United Madhesi Democratic Front (UMDF) Nepal
Sadhbhawana Party, Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) and
Terai-Madhes Democratic Party, signed an agreement. The Bandh in
the Terai was called off and victory rallies were organised in all
districts including Bara, Parsa, Dhanusha, Rautahat, Siraha,
Nawalparasi, Sarlahi, Sunsari, Saptari and Morang.
The eight-point agreement states that Nepal will be a
federal democratic republican state complying to the demands of
regional autonomy and a federal system of governance including
the Madhesi people’s demand for an autonomous Madhes Pradesh.
There will be distinct power sharing between the centre
(Kathmandu) and the region (pradesh). Compulsory appointment,
promotion and nomination of Madhesi, indigenous communities,
women, Dalit, backward areas and minority communities to ensure
proportional participation in security bodies (including Nepal
Army) and all organs of the state will be carried out. A Five
point agreement has also been signed with the Federal Republican
National Front (FRNF) representing the minorities in Eastern
Nepal.
The beginnings of a crisis was evident when on 9
February, the three major Madhesi parties, MPRF, Terai-Madhes
Democratic Party and Sadbhawana Party formed a new alliance,
UMDF. This was followed by a six point demand to the interim
government. Simultaneously a programme of protests was announced
to meet the demands with an indefinite general strike from 13
February and a blockade from 17 February. This placed the
government under great pressure with the dates for filing
nominations getting closer. The response of the Seven Party
Alliance (SPA) was to hold a series of rounds of talks with the
UMDF. The first session was held with the Prime Minister which
failed to end the dead lock and was followed with the SPA
leadership. Finally a meeting on 23 February agreed to fulfill
all demands other than that calling for an autonomous Madhes
state. This failed to satisfy the UMDF till the Eight point
Agreement was signed on 28 February. On the other hand the
general strike in the Terai led to a serious crisis in economy
and governance. Five persons died in some cases in police firing
on demonstrators.
Some how the inability of the Nepal government to
anticipate the crisis is leading to continued flux in the
country. The hardening stand of the Terai leadership was evident
when former Minister for Science and Technology and Nepal
Congress leader Mahantha Thakur and three other Terai
parliamentarians resigned on 10 December 2007. This had a snow
balling effect with a number of other leaders resigning
subsequently giving weight to the overall Terai agitation. A
possible political crisis in Madhes hindering elections has now
been overcome. The Maoists however accused an Indian role in
instigating the Terai parties to seek autonomy.
The second impediment to Nepal’s smooth elections is the
situation in the Terai. The law and order in Terai appears to be
going from bad to worse. While the Election Commission has
already indicated to the government the need to control the law
and order situation, this has not received due attention and the
government’s much vaunted plan of action of three tier security
appears to be in a limbo. While the agreement has been
reached with the political parties in Terai, there are at least
two dozen militant groups which are active and who can disrupt
the election process.
The Election Commission (EC) has announced that 2,191
candidates -- 1,698 from 33 major and fringe political parties
and 493 independents-- filed their nominations in 240 election
constituencies to contest the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA)
poll under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. Among the
candidates, 244 are women (including 29 independents). The three
major constituents of the ruling seven-party alliance-- Nepali
Congress, CPN-UML and Maoist -- have filed candidacies in all
constituencies across the country, whereas People's Front Nepal
(PFN) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) have filed candidacies
in 187 and 178 constituencies respectively. [Kantipur Report]
The CPN M, Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, Rastriya Prajatantra
Party and pro-monarch Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal (RPP
Nepal) has submitted candidacies for all 335 seats for
proportional representation as well. The rules of Nepal’s
elections through the proportional representation system are
highly complicated. As given in Kantipur Online, a party will
have to provide a list of at least 34 candidates, six of which
could be common candidates representing different groups. A party
contesting all 335 seats could have 54 candidates under the
common group. Minimum 11 seats for Madhesis, five for Dalits, 13
for janajatis, one for backward regions, 10 under 'others' and 17
for women are necessary for a party to contest. For all 335
seats, 104 seats for Madhesis, 44 for Dalits, 127 for indigenous
groups, 13 for backwards regions, 101 for others and 168 for
women are required. A party winning 25 seats must allocate at
least seven seats for Madhesis, three for Dalits, nine for
indigenous groups, one for backward regions, seven for others and
12 for women.
This is the first time that the election process in Nepal
has reached the stage of filing nominations by candidates. The
last two times when elections were postponed no candidates had
filed nominations. This will provide an impetus to the process as
the candidates will also place pressure on the leadership not to
post pone elections. There has been considerable pressure on
Nepal government and political parties to hold elections. Apart
from official discourse from India, a delegation of Indian
National Congress-I leaders visited the country from 12 February
and publicly expressed its stand for the Republic rather than the
monarchy. The delegation underscored the need for holding
elections in time. The people of Nepal are tired of repeated
bandhs and political posturing, elections as scheduled are the
only ray of light ahead, and hopefully the political class will
not disappoint them this time around.
March 16, 2008
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Elections: A Reality Check
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
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