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Analysis
Indians in
Afghanistan
– Perils of Regional Politics
By
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
Indian presence in Afghanistan came under pressure during April on many
fronts. The first was an attack on the Indian road construction team in
Nimroz province on 12 April killing two Border Roads Organization
personnel, while an Indian citizen, Sarang Mohammed Naeem, working for
Dubai-based HEB International Logistics was kidnapped in Herat on 21
April. These attacks follow an ambush on 3 January this year which
killed two Indo Tibetan Border Police personnel in Nimroz. Two Indian
engineers — M P Singh and C Govindaswamy — were killed and five injured
when the Indian road construction team convoy was attacked in Minar area
in the Nimroz province late in the evening on 12 April.
These incidents may or may not be related, though the attack in Nimroz
was definitely a part of the larger Taliban strategy of coercing
governments to leave the country. With 4000 Indians working in
Afghanistan on various public and private projects, the Indian
government is concerned about their security. Simultaneously on another
front, the much touted soft power one, ironically it was the Afghan
government which was forcing television channels Tolo and Afghan TV to
stop broadcasting five Indian soaps named "Tulsi" and "Kasauti Zindagi
Kay" (Test of Life). While President Hamid Karzai stated that all
programs should be, "be in line with our culture, based on our society
moral standards." Tolo director, Jahid Mohseni was defiant and was also
willing to seek legal recourse, "We won't ban our programmes. If there
is more pressure from the government, we will seek legal advice," he
said.
This move by the Afghan government is seen even as the strategic
engagement in the field of higher education with India continued with
the visit of Vice Chancellor, University of Jammu, Professor Amitabh
Mattoo to Kabul University.
External Affairs Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee was categorical in
stating, "We cannot succumb to the pressure of Taliban or any extremist
group. Our approach is of zero tolerance. This is exactly what the
Taliban want. They do not want any development activity in Afghanistan.
Almost everyday we are facing this problem. Threats and minor attacks
are taking place on a daily basis”. Indian government’s major projects
in Afghanistan include, the 218-km Zaranj-Delaram road project, a hydel
power project and a Parliament building. Given Afghanistan’s strategic
significance for India, it is unlikely that the Indian government will
take precipitate action to withdraw elements from the country. There may
be a case however of increasing presence of security forces, thereby
providing greater security to the road construction team which will
continue to be targeted. Pakistan is certainly uncomfortable if not
downright hostile to Indian presence in Afghanistan. The large number of
terrorist groups and criminal gangs operating in Pakistan and
Afghanistan would be ideal foil for Islamabad to continue with such low
cost high value strikes in the future.
A bigger set back however is seen to soft power tools, movies and
television serials which are being banned in the country, for this was a
persuasive tool for rebuilding Indo Afghan cultural relations. Thus
there are grounds to believe that even soft power has limitations.
The objective of International forces in Afghanistan is to transfer
power to the Afghan people, this would be viewed in many different ways
as is evident from the statement of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen
Harper "I think it depends what you mean by `success.' If you took the
definition of success which could be Afghan forces able to ensure a
Western equivalent security environment, maybe that's a 20-25-year task.
If you're saying Afghan forces able to manage the day-to-day security in
most of the country, we think that's an objective that, if we put our
focus and determination towards, is achievable in a much shorter
timeframe”. With long term commitment of the United States in the
region, not just for stability in Afghanistan but also due to US
geo-strategic needs such as Iran and Central Asia, Kabul will continue
to be a high priority for Washington. Concomitantly western forces will
continue to be based in the area for many more years to come, what ever
be the bickering within the NATO alliance.
The NATO vision at the Bucharest summit called for a firm and shared
long-term commitment; support for enhanced Afghan leadership and
responsibility; a comprehensive approach by the international community,
bringing together civilian and military efforts; and increased
cooperation and engagement with Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially
Pakistan. To realize this vision, there is increased focus on assistance
from regional states. Thus Russia, Central Asian States, Iran and India
apart from Pakistan will remain engaged in the months ahead.
Infra structure developments such as the Delaram- Zaranj highway and the
proposed road in South East Afghanistan will have far reaching positive
consequences for the country. South East Afghanistan has traditionally
being more closely linked with Pakistan than Kabul. The project of
linking Khost and Paktia to Kabul would have major implications not just
economically but politically as there would be a subtle break in the
linkage between Pashtun territory on both sides of the Durand Line. So
would the Kajaki Dam bring in great joy by providing electricity to the
most intensely troubled Helmand province, the global hub of poppy
cultivation.
India can ill afford to stay away from Afghanistan given the global
presence in the region. What is however essential is to ensure the
safety and security of the 4000 plus Indian citizens in the country by
generating greater awareness of the security hazards and undertaking
mitigating measures.
May 4, 2008
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