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Analysis
Pakistan’s
Defence Budget: Misplaced Priorities
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
It is popularly believed that while most states have an army, Pakistan army
has a state. This was evident with the defence budget kept beyond the
purview of the National Assembly over the past many years ever since the
Indo Pakistan war in 1965. The army expected the state to support it without
any questions on its profligacy.
Thus it was a notable occasion when, Pakistan’s defence expenditure
estimates were presented under major heads in the National Assembly this
year. The Prime Minister Mr Gillani announced, “The Ministry of Defence and
chief of Army Staff have fully endorsed the revised format of the defence
budget estimates.” He indicated that the expenditure had to be sustained as
the country could not “afford to remain oblivious to our defence needs. As a
matter of policy, I declare that our defence is based on the strategy of
minimum credible deterrence and that we shall not enter into any arms race.”
What was perhaps unstated was that neither Pakistan nor India can afford to
enter into an arms race with large percentage of the populations living
below the poverty line. Thus this is more of an imposed rather than a
strategic choice.
Pakistan’s defence budget for the 2008-09 fiscal year starting 1 July was
raised by 7.6 percent – from Rs (Pakistan) 275 billion in 2007-08 to Rs
296.07 billion ($4.4 billion). The increase was claimed to be negligible,
due to 10.4 percent inflation, increase in fuel prices and 20 percent
increase in pay and allowances. The budgetary allocation of the services for
2008-09 was broken down in seven categories: employee-related expenses;
operating expenses; travel and transportation; general; physical assets;
other stores and stocks; and civil works. Of Rs 296 billion, a major portion
of Rs 294.9 billion have been allocated to military defence and Rs 1.17
billion to defence administration. Of military defence allocation, Rs 99
billion will be spent on employees’ related expenses. The operating expenses
will be Rs 82.84 billion and the cost of physical assets Rs 87.63 billion.
The army will spend Rs 25.73 billion on civil works.
A report in the Daily Times has given the break down in the defence budget
thus, “allocations for the Pakistan Army have increased by 4.31 percent as
compared to last year with a grant of Rs 128.699 billion. Of this amount, Rs
71.274 billion has been allocated for employee-related expenses, Rs 22.337
billion for operating expenses and Rs 21.527 for physical assets and other
stores and stocks. The budgetary allocation for the Air Force has increased
by 5.93 percent in 2008-09 with Rs 71.006 billion, as compared to Rs 67.028
billion allocation in 2007-08”.
The Navy saw the highest increase in allocations by 14.16 percent with a
total grant of Rs 29.133 billion, as compared to Rs 25.518 billion in
2007-08. Defence Production Establishment also received a similar boost of
14.48 percent to be allotted an amount of Rs 66.467 billion, Rs 40.129
billion been allocated for operating expenses and Rs 36.342 billion for
general expenses.
Major General [Retired] Shujaat Ali Khan writing in the Daily Times
justifies the increase in the defence budget on the plea that there is
widespread disparity in superiority of 2:1 in land forces and 4:1 in naval
and air forces between India and Pakistan. Indian estimates on the other
hand do not indicate such a clear superiority. While suggesting that the
country cannot afford to go in for an arms race with New Delhi, he feels
Pakistan should opt for relative, “balance between nuclear and conventional
forces”. This alone will prevent India gaining an advantage which will lure
it into military confrontation perceiving weakness in Pakistan says Shujaat.
Pakistan is spending 4.5 percent of the GDP on defence. For a developing
country defence spending over and above 3 percent is considered to impinge
on development. The Prime Minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani attempted to
turn the Defence Budget into an Indo Pakistan issue by seeking similar
reduction from India. Thus speaking in the National Assembly, Gilani
promised to freeze allotments for defence and even talked of reduction while
hoping, “We hope to see a reciprocal gesture from our neighbor for the sake
of peace and prosperity in the region.”
India’s Defence Minister Mr AK Antony reacted, “India’s defence budget —
with an annual allocation of less than 2 per cent of the GDP — is amongst
the lowest in the world. Despite our economic boom, our expenditure is less
than 2 per cent of the GDP”. The Defence Minister’s assertion is also
evident from a survey of the figures where in Indian defence spending, as
percentage of GDP, has declined from 3.38 per cent in 1987-88 to 1.98 per
cent in 2007-08. Thus the Pakistani establishment may find it difficult to
justify defence expenditure vis a vis India, particularly so when the
country is spending 4.5 percent of the GDP on defence in a year of
decelerating economic growth, increased political instability and rising
inflation.
Greater
transparency in defence budget of Pakistan is welcome. What has however not
been factored in is the large tranche of loans and military aid that the
country has been receiving form the US as well as the strategic agreement it
has for supply of defence equipment and technology particularly missiles
from China. This is providing it additional resources for military
development. The US largesse though partly paid for by Pakistan was evident
with four F 16 aircraft delivered to the Pakistan Air Force during the
month. Given that the bigger challenge before the Pakistan armed forces
today is internal and not that from India these weapon systems would prove
of limited utility.
There are also many accusations by the General Accounting Office in the
United States that some of the funds allotted for countering militancy have
been scarcely utilized for this purpose by the Pakistan Army. With the
military today facing a major challenge of a long and protracted counter
militancy campaign in the NWFP and Waziristan proportionate allotment of
resources for procurement of assets such as bullet proof vehicles and
personal kits may be in order. Given that the budget does not indicate such
allotments, the capability of the armed forces in this sphere remains an
unknown factor.
Or is it as many suspect the Army is not ready and prepared for counter
militancy. With reports of the North West Frontier Province and Waziristan
falling into the hands of the Taliban including possibly the capital
Peshawar, it is time that the Pakistan army shifts its priorities from the
East to the West. For if it does not do so, there is a real threat of the
militants slicing off the areas close to the Durand.
June 30, 2008
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