|
Analysis
India: Balancing United States and
China
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
With the reemergence of Asia as the primary sphere of global
engagement in the 21st Century due to power balance of
population, production, information and military gradually
shifting towards India and China, the West is now looking for an
ally to retain its preeminence. China’s one party rule, power
centric approach and huge economic and trade surpluses are
admired as well as feared. On the other hand India with its
democracy, soft diplomacy and a strong military appears to be
favorably placed to balance the two poles of the global balance,
China and the West.
The United States has a number of policy objectives in engaging India,
strategic, economic and socio cultural with a large Indian
diaspora in America today. Some Indian analysts feel that one
part of the relationship is also to balance a rising China,
however there is a majority of Indians who hold the view that
finally India and China will cooperate in Asia as well as the
globe as was evident in the cordial atmosphere of talks between
the Indian and Chinese Prime Ministers in Bangkok on 24 October.
Yet there are many challenges to be overcome before the West is
comfortable with India or India with the West and China and
India develop a relationship of trust beyond the occasional
stand off over the border issue and visits by dignitaries to
Arunachal Pradesh including the revered His Holiness Dalai Lama,
whom Beijing sadly denigrates as a,“splitist” amongst other
unwarranted castigations.
The Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh who many believe
is too soft on foreign policy issues thankfully set the record
straight when he met Premier Wen Jiabao in Bangkok on the issue
of His Holiness to Arunachal Pradesh. India views the Dalai Lama
as a guest and a spiritual person exactly opposite of what the
Chinese perception. However this is not likely to satisfy the
Chinese who will continue to raise the issue from time to time.
Hopefully New Delhi will not wilt.
But there are other concerns in the Sino Indian relations which
make the Chinese wary of Indian intent. One is the Indo US
defence cooperation. The scale of ongoing military exercises
between the two countries is worrying Chinese analysts. There is
actually no major change in the Indo US joint military exercise,
the purpose remains restricted to company level joint training
for Ex Yudh Abhyas for the Army and joint airborne training for
Cope India for the Air Force. Company level training is not
considered large scale. Even the equipment used such as Bradley
armored vehicles have been used earlier in similar company level
training in Alaska in the US by Indian and US forces.
Increased army sales are another factor that Beijing is worried
about. The US arms sales policy denotes that this is another
facet of the overall bilateral cooperation as also defence
cooperation between the two countries. India is developing a
balanced arms purchase policy to technologically upgrade its
Armed Forces and therefore US assistance in this sphere would be
welcome.
The Chinese need to appreciate that India
is wary of President Obama’s policies, despite the 24 November
State welcome to the Indian Prime Minister in Washington. There
is an Indian view that US foreign policy under President Obama
is not as favorable as it was in the time of Mr George W Bush
who went out of the way to accommodate India through the special
Indo US Nuclear Deal. Indians are skeptical of President Obama’s
policies on nuclear non proliferation, CTBT and FMCT. Similarly
the emphasis of the US President on preserving domestic jobs is
also a concern for countries as India who has a large number of
youth working in the United States.
India is no doubt on the cusp of an emerging opportunity to be a
major player by balancing between the West and China. However
for this it would have to place itself more aggressively on the
multilateral fora though it is not a part of the UN P 5. But it
can well leverage the link or swing power role that analysts
have been talking about to advantage. Are Madam Nirupama Rao and
her colleagues in Washington and Beijing looking towards such a
role for the country would determine the way ahead? We all hope
they are doing so.
October 25, 2009
Top |
Analysis
|
