The Pakistan Army which dominates and controls Pakistan’s foreign policy and strategic calculations find itself strategically cornered in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s targeted killing by US Special Forces deep within Pakistan territory and that too in the precincts of Pakistan Army’s major garrison town of Abbottabad. Additionally, the relationship between the intelligence agencies of the United States, the CIA, and the Pakistan Army’s ISI stands ruptured. With United States-Pakistan strategic relationship in downslide and a possible breakdown, the Pakistan Army’s known propensity for military adventurism against India to divert both domestic and external attention cannot be ruled out. India therefore has to be on heightened alert and vigilance to blunt Pakistan Army’s military adventurist designs.
|The prevailing security environment that dominates the India-Pakistan strategic space should logically rule out any planned visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan.
India’s Prime Minister and the Indian policy establishment need to exercise reticence and restraint when sermonizing on the merits of Indo-Pak peace and the imperatives for resuming Peace Dialogues with Pakistan. The correct response from the Indian Prime Minister instead of sermonizing on peace would be to respond with a matter of fact assertion that “Peace is desirable with Pakistan but it depends on Pakistan and the Pakistan Army to create conditions foe peace”
Making peace dependant solely on bringing the Pakistani perpetrators of Mumbai 26/11 to justice amounts to narrowing down the ambit of overall peace that is desirable. Peace between India and Pakistan can only come about when the people of Pakistan rise against the Pakistan Army’s vice-like grip on Pakistan’s relations with India.
India till then has to be content with ensuring that India’s borders with Pakistan are securely manned and strongly guarded. India also has to ensure that the Indian Armed Forces military hardware inventories voids are speedily made up and the logistics backup for any eventuality of a Indo-Pakistan conflict are fully maintained.
More importantly, India’s intelligence agencies need to be put into forward gears for not missing out the critical indicators that normally go into ascertaining Pakistan Army’s aggressive intentions. India’s intelligence on both Pakistan and China, which figure prominently in India’s threat perceptions, has always remained a blind spot in India’s national security planning.
More than just the aggressive instincts of the Pakistan Army, India’s Prime Minister and the policy establishment have to note the “China Factor” that will come into greater play this time around in the event of a fresh Indo-Pakistan conflict.
The prevailing security environment that dominates the India-Pakistan strategic space should logically rule out any planned visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan.
It is high time the Indian Prime Minster and the Indian policy establishment see through Pakistan’s duplicitous behavior where Pakistan is attempting a national divide within India between the India people who are decidedly against any “Pakistan Appeasement Policies of the Prime Minister” and Pakistani policy establishment constant refrain that the Indian Prime Minster is a “Man of Peace” but held hostage to Indian public opinion.
Pakistan cornered strategically poses a serious threat to Indian national security as military adventurism against India is the only workable option to divert Pakistani domestic public attention and international attention from the crises that afflict Pakistan.
The Indian Government should pay serious and deliberate attention to the briefings and recommendations of its military hierarchy when it comes to Pakistan.
India’s national security is in danger when Pakistan policy formulations are left solely in the hands of India’s political leadership and the bureaucrats of the Prime Minister’s Office. Both are strategically naive and not conditioned by strategic culture.