Environment  
Distressed Habitation
by VK Joshi

People of habitats that have witnessed destruction en-mass develop a peculiar psyche. My first encounter nearly three and half decades ago, with such a psyche was at a small way-side railway station near Hoshiarpur in Punjab. The village overlooking the railway station, was situated on a large mound with a boundary wall all around, perhaps relicts of an old fort! The clock struck five in the evening and the place became deserted. An eerie silence prevailed. Vultures came from no where and sat on the boundary wall, peering eagerly towards the railway line. Next evening again the same scene was repeated. The station master, a sardarji in his late fifties told me that one fateful evening in August 1947, train loads of passengers were butchered at this place. Since then no one ventures out in the evening and the vultures return daily in the hope of more dead bodies to scavenge.

Parting is painful. Unexpected death due to a disaster hurts more. Imagine the mental condition of the near and dear ones of those 73,000 who perished in the earthquake in Kashmir last year! The women, innocent children and old men are distressed beyond imagination.

Earthquake leaves in its wake a heavy trail of destruction. People lose their families, dwellings, belongings, bread-winners, bread and jobs too. Earthquake does not spare anyone, rich or poor, developed or developing nation. Developed countries like USA and Japan have learnt lessons from repeated earthquakes and have evolved techniques and methods to obviate loss of life. Places like schools and mosques where people congregate are most vulnerable. The Republic Day of 2001 will remain for ever a black day in the minds of the parents who lost their children in Anjar in Gujarat. These 400 innocent lives were lost just because they had assembled to take part in the parade.

The mobile sub-continent has had several major earthquakes in the history, a part of the record of which is tabled here to show how many lives have been extinguished prematurely. 

(Table after: 'Bhukamp ek Parichay', by R.K. Awasthi, GSI)

In the past two centuries more than 60, 000 people have succumbed to earthquakes in India. Nearly 56% of landmass of the country is affected by earthquakes. It is natural that financially too earthquakes are a major loss.

Developed countries have take steps to minimize the losses in terms of life and money both. For example, California in the USA is frequently rocked by earthquakes. The seismologists of the Californian Geological Survey (CGI) have developed techniques of estimating losses from expected future earthquakes and have not only identified and categorized the hazard prone areas but also calculated the direct economic losses due to building damage. It may be noted that an earthquake leaves a trail of indirect economic losses too in the form of capital stock loss, income loss and loss of man hours.

United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared detailed 'shake maps' of probable earthquakes. These maps entail details of ground motion depending upon the magnitude, intensity and geological set up of the concerned area. The maps also depict the impact of particular motion on the soil and buildings. Using demographic data and the 'shake maps' on specialized software the seismologists of CGI have worked out estimated losses to buildings. The estimated annual economic loss due to building damage for the state of California has been worked out to be $ 2.2 billion. Los Angeles is the most vulnerable area of the State in terms of highest expected annual loss of $740 million. The scientists inform that greater the population density higher is the likely per-capita loss.

The data available with the United States Geological Survey is enormous and consequently the calculations of probable losses are considered quite realistic by the authorities. Considering the varieties of construction materials across the length and breadth of the country and the social and economic conditions collection of such data for our country on the pattern of the developed countries has not yet been possible.

A.S. Arya a seismologist from the IIT Roorkee suggests development of indigenous strategies for earthquake hazard evaluation and risk reduction programs.

The evidences of stresses building up on the plate margin in the central Himalayan region indicate that the area is most vulnerable for a major earthquake. Arya carried out some probabilistic damage studies in Kangra area of H.P. He states that if an earthquake of same intensity (M 8.0) that struck Kangra (H.P.) in 1905 was to repeat in 1991 and if all the 18,15,858 houses (as per 1991 census) were without earthquake safety provisions, the losses in terms of property would be to the tune of Rs 51.04 billion.

However, he states that if all the houses were made earthquake safe as per the building design code of the BIS the extra cost involved would be only Rs 6.35 billion resulting in a net saving of Rs25.09 billion. The lives lost and houses destroyed would naturally be reduced drastically.

The financial losses after the Kutch earthquake of 2001 for the buildings alone as estimated by the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) amount to a whopping Rs 120,000 to Rs 150,000 million. The infrastructure losses amounted to Rs 30,000 million and Factories suffered a loss of Rs 15,000 million. The figures become colossal if loss of man hours resulting in over all industrial production of Rs 25,000 million per day is added. Much of these could have been avoided had the building codes been really followed!

Making earthquake safe houses as per the laid standards involves an extra expenditure of 25 to 35% says Prabhas Pande, Director GSI and an eminent seismologist. In places like Delhi the house owners are prepared to spend up to 75% more on additional balconies, projections and decorating the house with huge chandeliers. Such houses become death traps in the event of an earthquake.

If an earthquake of the type that occurred in Delhi in 1720 when 1000 people perished under the collapsed houses, repeats then at least 55 lakh people in Delhi are at grave risk say the seismologists. The house owners and builders of earthquake prone area like Delhi must realize that the economics of the earthquake is very clear, investment in earthquake proofing now is insurance for the future and a big life saver too.

In the matter of recovering from the losses suffered the state of Gujarat in India is worth appreciating. Within three years of calamity (2001 earthquake) Kutch was totally resurrected. The earthquake lessons were taken seriously and now the 98% constructions even in rural areas comply with the earthquake safety norms.

Earthquakes will continue to shake our land. Management of this kind of disaster needs a deep thought and a fool proof plan. Pande says that that there are five factors that aggravate the problem, viz. i) suddenness of the event, without any warning, ii) unpredictability of the mechanism, iii) involvement of a very large area, iv) lack of preparedness due to long recurrence periods and v) ignorance about the risk. Amongst these the last two can be very well addressed by the government and the society through media and education system.

The vastness and variability of gemorphological set up of our country demands that a uniform disaster management model can not be practical. Therefore the models have to vary as per the topography and density of population. For example one of the major problems in mountain terrain is post-disaster rescue and relief work. Villages are sparse and far flung and often impossible to reach in the eventuality of an earthquake.

Normal measures of earthquake disaster management are being slowly picked up by various states in India. Providing counseling to the victims has not yet been included in the disaster management plan. The victims, specially the children and women need the help of psychologists and counselors to reduce the trauma of the quake that lingers with them.

On one hand earthquakes cause distress and on the other provide information about the depths of the earth. That is why Daly said:

"Man is learning to harness for his enquiring use the very wrath of the trembling of our vibrant globe are used to 'X-Ray' the deep interior" � R. A. Daly, 1928

We will discuss more about some more geo-hazards in the forth coming issues.

October 8, 2006

Image "Five story building collapsed like pack of card."

 
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