India’s political dynamics currently underway presents an amusing spectacle of politicians from different political dispensations positioning themselves for the post of Prime Minister in 2014. Snakes and ladders games, proxy wars and diabolical machinations are in full swing to climb to the much coveted post of Prime Minister of India not for noble motives but for amassing naked power and all that goes with it, as recent times illustrate.
In the on-going Indian political circus, where does one begin? I think it would be more appropriate to start the survey from India’s two major political parties as it is on their moves that the regional parties make their calculations. Let us begin with the Congress Party.
The Congress Party is a party where Prime Ministers emerge from dynastic succession and that places Rahul Gandhi as its Prime Minister in 2014. But the Congress is in a fix as to whether to field Rahul Gandhi against BJP’s probable candidate —Namenda Modi. Should Modi get whittled down from within BJP itself or Congress-originated proxy wars against Modi, the Rahul Gandhi will be definitely fielded. However, the Congress would not reveal its cards till proxy wars and machinations stand played out.
BJP stands a very good chance of capturing power in New Delhi in 2014 in case it fields Namenda Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. All credible public opinion polls point in that direction. India-at-large wants a dynamic figure to lead India and rescue the Republic from the abysmal depths of misgovernance and political corruption.
In the last few days the BJP stands tripped by its own senior-most leader and patriarch, namely L K Advani whose own Prime Ministerial ambitions have not dimmed though approaching 86 years of age. His political shenanigans in forestalling Modi’s elevation are too recent and do not need recounting.
Having failed to bring about Modi’s forestalling within the BJP, Advani then played the NDA card and that too seems to be failing. There was no requirement of Advani and Sushma Swaraj appealing to Nitish Kumar not to exit NDA. The reasons should be obvious.
That brings us to the insidious role of Nitish Kumar who today broke the BJP-JD (U) Coalition Government in Bihar on the issue of Narendra Modi’s eventual emergence as BJP Prime Minister.
Whose proxy games is Nitish Kumar playing in relation to the Prime Minister-ship in 2014? The political realities are that Nitish Kumar cannot emerge as Prime Minister in 2014 of any Third Front or Federal Front, Simply because all the regional satraps who will comprise these Fronts are Prime Minister contenders themselves and unlikely to yield in his favor. Also, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati cannot coexist in the same coalition.
If that is evident to ordinary Indians like this Columnist, surely it would be evident to Nitish Kumar also.
Political grapevines suggest many conspiracy theories. One is that Nitish Kumar may be playing the game for the Congress. Others speculated till the time of break that took place that his implied preference for Advani as opposed to Modi could be playing Advani’s game.
Pragmatically speaking whether it is Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh or Mayawati, they all are captives of Indian Muslims vote-banks and their electoral arithmetic may be upset.
But curiously if Modi finally emerges as BJP Prime Ministerial candidate then all these regional political worthies and the Congress should be extremely happy because logically Indian Muslim vote-banks should predominantly go in their favor with all the demonization of Modi that they have indulged for years now.
Or are these political dispensations smelling a rat that the Indian Muslims may be finally veering away from being captive vote-banks as the last Gujarat Assembly elections illustrate.
Ultimately, it will be the people of India who would have the last laugh notwithstanding the political machinations of the ant-Modi political foes.