In September 2013, India’s PM and Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif agreed to work on reducing border hostilities. But in Oct. 2013, Pakistan and Indian border troops exchanged fire on the LOC a number of times, each accusing the other of breaching the cease fire. Irrespective of what the Prime Ministers think, the Forces in India have to start getting alert from Feb 2014 when the USA starts withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan. The first withdrawal of about 30 000 soldiers would start ringing the warning bells in India. UK (7900), Italy (2800), Germany (4400) Poland as well as Georgia would pull out all their forces by the end of 2014 leaving the ground open and wide for the Taliban’s and other myriad forms of terrorism to flourish and disturb the neighboring states like India and Pakistan.
In Pakistan the Tehriq-e-Taliban Pakistan as well the Afghanistan counterpart would become very active in consolidating their positions, as they would be free from pressure exerted from the NATO forces. It is doubtful whether the Afghan forces trained by the USA experts would be able to stand the onslaught of the Taliban and other terrorist forces. It would not be a wild dream to see Afghanistan back to those days of pre-2001 when the Talibans were ruling the country with their brute, hardline, oppressive cadres who stopped all activities except practices allowed under strict Islamic laws.
Pakistan would be very much interested in succumbing to the wishes of the Taliban’s and allow them to divert their activities to Jammu and Kashmir and other Parts of India. The Taliban’s and other Tanzims of the terror are bent upon fishing and attacking our forces in J &K and for the last few years they were quiet on this front because they were tied down with the American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. It was because of this pre-occupation, that the Indian Government and the Indian forces were taking pride in containing the terrorist activities in J & K and elsewhere. From Feb 2014 it may appear to be a false pride.
The Indian Forces would have to start pulling their pants up right from now as they would have to face trained, battle weary, rugged and dedicated cadres of terrorists who are now as good as any countries elite forces if not better. Their sense of dedication is much beyond the vision of our forces. They are committed to their mission and in its pursuit they are neither enamored of any awards and rewards but only the result.
The Jihadis have already started recruiting fresh cadres for which there is no dearth as younger elements from Nigeria to USA, from India to England are ready to fight for their cause through which they want to reach their “Jannat”. Though Pakistan has denied that it would allow Jihadi elements to creep to India, it would be no surprise to find that the other hand of Pakistan is already helping the Talibans. Pakistan has its own domestic insurgencies with city like Karachi badly engulfed, a poor economy but the will of the Pakistan Government is limited only to some parts of Islamabad whereas in the rest of the country the Jihadi, the hardliners and its anti-India crowd rules and rules to prevail.
The testing times for the Indian Forces are round the corner and soon the Indian Government would have to change its course of philosophy.