Millions of desperate people are trying to enter Europe. They can be termed Refugees or Migrant, depending upon from what country they came from. About 50% of them are reported to be from Syria,and rest from Irag,Afghanistan,Iran and Pakistan. They are Sunnis, Shia, Christians,Kurds and Yezdis. They may be farmers, business people,women,men, children and sick elders who are trying to flee the ravaged Middle East. This is due to rise of identity politics,in the Middle East, Sub Sahara Africa and parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The wave of violence and killings in the Middle East reminds us of the violence that broke apart the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire and also to some extent the Partition era of the Indian Sub –continent. This migration wave may last longer as the war continues in Middle East, Sub-Sahara Region and unabated sectarian and ethnic violence in parts of Pakistan. There is now confusion in the Arab world, confusion between Sunnis and Shias, Iran and Saudia, authoritarianism and democracy, liberal nationalism and fanaticism and name what one may like.
Does this mean that Arab world has gone nowhere despite money, oil and Sheiks or this is a malice which is going to engulf a major part of the world in years to come?
There are about 8,50,000 refugees on the doors of Europe, ranging from Budapest to Berlin. The green signal from Germany has started the wave and hence there is deluge for Mama Merkel’s land. Would Europe be able to absorb them seamlessly or the migrants would create their own islands. The latter is more probable as seen in parts of Europe like Birmingham, Marseilles and Belgium. Europe or EU is itself in the throes of poverty with continuing budgetary and welfare crisis, youth unemployment and resulting frustration. Countries like Germany and Sweden may cope with migrants assuming that many of the migrants are well qualified and tech.savvy and may resolve the perennial skilled and non skilled problems of North and West Europe but the same solution may not work in countries like Greece or the older Eastern Europe countries like Hungary, Austria and Poland. The assumed success in Germany and Sweden can lead to more migration if Turkish war against Kurds escalates or the present military dictatorship fails in Egypt and radical Islamist take over forcing 9% to 10% Coptic Christians to leave their land forever. The same philosophy can work in Lebanon or parts of Africa which share borders somewhere with Europe.
All these new arrivals to Europe would also give rise to security problems, backlash from extreme right groups and parties . All migrants many not be innocent or naïve. There are already fears that ISIS may have sponsored some of them or could have influenced them.Director of National Intelligence(USA) James R Clapper has already warned(Sept.11,2015) about this. ISIS operatives have been claiming that thousands of fighters would be smuggled into Europe and USA. While the USA has pretty aggressive screening system for asylum seekers, the same cannot be said about Europe.USA has decided to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees. There may be similar security problems if after few years these migrants are not able to adjust themselves economically, culturally or social. They are not going to return to their native land but their existence in frustration could intimidate the locals.
Capitalism the major social engine around which Europe galvanized itself has failed to keep up the pace. Liberal values like free expression individual self determination, human rights and all such hi-fi words around which Europe enlightened itself may soon find a clash with these Migrants who come from a different mind set. Many of them have fundamentalist approach, do not believe in certain freedoms which West enshrines and may not like concept of open society which they did not find in their land of origin . Fundamental Islam has not brought any hope of goodness so far,otherwise these people would not have abandoned their farmlands, businesses and their hearth for succor in Christian lands. There is crisis in both Middle East and Europe and neither has any manna for success. EU has not been able to do any thing for ME or Africa despite relatively generous aid and on the other hand Middle East has squandered opportunities which Oil gave them in abundance. The Migrants will take few years to make a loss and gain statement on their leaving Middle East