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News of Jan
4, 2007
In Bangladesh, 'Battle of the Begums'
is now One-sided
By Mahendra Ved
The
"Battle of the Begums", as the contest between Sheikh Hasina and
Khaleda Zia for the prime minister's job is called, has become a
one-sided affair with the former boycotting the January 22 polls.
The opposing legacies of the two women have not allowed for a spirit
of reconciliation needed for the polity to grow and mature. On the
other hand, it has promoted political expediency. Both have
hobnobbed with radicals, indirectly promoting militancy of the Left
and Islamic variety.
The only difference is that the most contentious election will be
fought more on the streets than through the ballot box.
The next three weeks are crucial for Bangladesh, that is bound to
witness violence since those who boycott the polls, after being five
years in the opposition and after weeks of political bickering, are
unlikely to go back home and rest.
Technically, Zia may emerge as the net gainer with most of her
people romping home. She and her son Tareq have already won the
election unopposed. But that does not proclaim her victory; nor does
it make the election credible.
That Hasina took this step despite pressures from many quarters,
including envoys of major nations who have been pleading for a
semblance of political stability to allow economic progress,
underscores the point that democracy has not stabilized in this
young nation.
This is the first election wherein neutrality of the two 'referees'
- chief advisor of the caretaker government and the election
commission - have been seriously questioned before the government,
the court and on the streets.
As Ahmed reneged on his agreement to implement a "political package"
his advisors had worked out, doubts on these issues persist even as
the country moves towards the elections.
Several factors seem to have weighed with Hasina to take a decision
that many of her cadres are not likely to relish. One, she appears
convinced that the entire state machinery, right from President
Iajuddin Ahmed down to the smallest functionary who would be
concerned with the elections, is part of Zia's set-up that would
work against her.
This became clear when former military ruler H.M. Ershad, acquitted
in four court cases as long as he was willing to align with Zia, was
convicted in a fifth one and got disqualified from the elections
once he chose to join forces with the Hasina-led alliance.
On the face of it, it would be difficult to find fault with the
court and the election machinery. But the sequence of events and the
past records make it difficult not to discern pre-poll politics not
alien to Bangladesh.
Commentators, be they in Dhaka, Delhi, London or Washington, have
noted that Zia was able to top the state machinery she nurtured for
five years with a chief of a caretaker government of her choice. She
confronted her rival with a no-win choice: either Justice K.M. Hasan,
a former functionary of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), or
President Ahmed, whom she had brought in as head of the state two
years ago.
It has become well nigh impossible for Hasina to oppose Ahmed who
remains the Head of the State, a constitutional office that commands
respect. She demanded that he step aside in favour of somebody
'neutral'. But the situation was so untenable that the US envoy to
Dhaka, Patricia Butenis, busy brokering reconciliation among the
contenders to ensure a smooth poll, went public saying that Hasina's
demand was "impractical."
Hasina made some tactical errors as her cadres fought pitched
battles with their political rivals on one hand and the police on
the other. Several weeks of agitation, in which at least 40 persons
have died, paralyzed the country's economy. This has had a negative
impact on the minds of the urban class, the diplomatic community and
the foreign investors.
In her anxiety to have a come-one-come-all alliance to defeat Zia,
Hasina struck a deal with the Bangladesh Khelafat Movement, an
avowedly radical Islamist organization led by former Afghan war
veterans who have in the past prescribed Taliban-style regime for
Bangladesh.
She was hoping to use the body to divide the vote bank of Zia's ally
Jamaat-e-Islami. But it generated revulsion among the liberals and
the intelligentsia, both at home and abroad. The religious
minorities, already complaining about their non-inclusion on the
voters' list, also did not take kindly to this.
Past experience has shown that these political have-nots rally and
the bureaucracy swings in favor of the opposition only if there is a
wave. Hasina has apparently perceived that she has not been able to
generate a wave like her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was able to
whip up way back in 1970.
(Mahendra Ved is a journalist and
commentator on South Asian affairs who has lived and worked in
Bangladesh. He can be contacted at
mahendra.ved@gmail.com)
IANS
News of Jan
4, 2007
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