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Opinion    
Elections in Israel and Palestine
New Dynamics for Peace � 2
by Sujata Ashwarya Cheema

Sharon�s party could revitalize the political centre in Israel; the centre that has collapsed in the past five years marked by terror and violence. Sharon now has the ideological flexibility to form coalitions with other like-minded parties (for example Yosef Lapid�s Shinui Party) and engage parties of the left and right after the elections. Under Peretz, Labor will be more resolutely left-leaning on both the Palestinian and its social-democratic agenda. If Benjamin Netanyahu leads Likud, it could take a more consistent right-leaning approach to the Palestinians. Sharon is hoping that he will also attract a large number of Labor voters, with a centrist policy that calls for disengagement, peace, and development projects within Israel.

There are signs that Peretz would try to demonstrate that he is similar to Sharon when it comes to supporting Israeli control of settlement blocs, largely adjacent to the 1967 ceasefire lines. Outgoing housing minister Isaac Herzog announced on November 22 that he consulted with Peretz about building 350 units inside Ma�aleh Adumim. Peretz is considered a �dove� on the question of peace with the Palestinians and in the past has supported the Peace Now movement that opposes Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. However, Peretz is aware of the previous Labour leader Amram Mitzna�s disastrous showing against Sharon in the 2003 elections, when the former general stressed his �dovishness�. Therefore, the question is how he will move more to the middle, coming close to mirroring Sharon�s position on the Palestinian issue.

These developments in Israeli politics have the potential to bring on serious electoral competition that could lead to real change in the composition of the government and enhance the prospects of future peace negotiations.

Implications of Palestinian election

In the light of the shift to the centre among the Israeli electorate, it appears likely that moderate Palestinians, who advocate peaceful settlement of the conflict, might succeed in recruiting additional public support in the upcoming Legislative Council elections. The results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between December 6-8, 2005, showed that 50 percent of the Palestinians will vote for the moderate ruling Fateh as compared to 32 percent for Hamas; 9 percent would vote for other factions and groups including independents, and 9 percent remain undecided. In addition, concessions and gestures by Israel on sensitive issues such as the modalities of the Gaza crossings, and release of political prisoners could also encourage a dovish Palestinian vote.

The participation of the primary Islamic opposition, Hamas, in the elections in Palestine, would not only strengthen the Palestinian Authority, but also the peace camp. This is the second election within the framework of the Oslo Accords; the first was held in 1996, which was boycotted by political Islamic groups. The more inclusive such an election is, the more comprehensive the acceptance of the vision and spirit of Oslo and thus must be considered as a step forward for peace.

The Intifada years have seen two developments of far-reaching importance in Occupied Palestine. These developments have had detrimental effects on the course of the peace process and carry the possibility of disrupting the same in the future. The first development is Israel�s continued and relentless onslaught on the Palestinian people and indeed the peace process itself: superimposing unilateralism over bilateral negotiations, building of the West Bank separation wall, economic strangulation of Gaza due to frequent border closure, and swelling ranks of Palestinian political prisoners in Israeli prisons. This has led to strengthening of Islamic groups, evident in Hamas� win over Fateh, the ruling party, in the municipal elections in May and December 2005, reflecting the shifting grounds of Palestinian political landscape.

Continued

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