Speaking to a gathering of officers of all the three services in Karachi on Saturday, Pakistan�s President General Pervez Musharraf promised modernization of the armed forces, to make them, �much stronger and far more capable to thwart any design against the country�. The Armed Forces is the first constituency of the President, one which is his greatest source of strength and the only one whose support has not shown any signs of denuding in the past few months. The Army�s conduct of operations in Waziristan despite suffering heavy casualties over the years is far from credible as today the Taliban is alleged to be controlling the entire border belt of Federally Administered Tribal Areas or FATA.

But these failures are hidden from the public eye by a wooly concept of peace making with the, �elders�. The President needs the support of the Army for that is his last bastion of hope and promises of more, �toys for the boys� is the best policy to win over loyalty of the uniform. 

Musharraf�s second constituency is the United States whose interest in Pakistan lies in reining in the elusive leadership of the Al Qaeda. Washington too seems to be supporting the General at least overtly. But these seem to be the only straws in the wind hoping against hope that the General will be able to deliver in Pakistan. Other supporters of the President cum Chief of the Army Staff are gradually deserting the general.

The Islamists in particular are very upset with Musharraf for betraying their cause to the West. While they were tolerant till Musharraf did not impose moderation, his programme of Ataturkism in Pakistan had few takers for this was against the controlling interests of the large body of fundamentalists in the country. Thus the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) which was a staunch ally is now against the government. What with Islamic clerics of the Lal Masjid, a stones throw away from the administration in Islamabad issuing a fatwa against the regime, this constituency appears to have deserted the General altogether.

And it is the elusive opposition which retains the key to his plans to keep the uniform as well as the post of President. The opposition in Pakistan is fully charged to take advantage of the rebellion by the Chief Justice Mr. Iftikhar Chaudhury, an unlikely crusader who has within a period of over a month managed to galvanize the imagination of the masses. Ironically the Mullahs of Lal Masjid supported Chaudhury, denoting that the rallying point was Musharraf.

All now depends on the mainstream opposition parties, Benazir Bhutto�s Pakistan People�s Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif�s Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N). The latter has claimed recently that technically he is still the prime minister as a coup through which he was replaced is constitutionally invalid. He is not very favorably inclined towards the Army and hence has lesser chances of coming back to power.

Benazir is another story, of the two she appears to be more supportive of the uniform and thus acceptable to the top brass.

Till late media was rife with rumors some of which were planted no doubt of a pact between Benazir and Musharraf. This comprised of a series of compromises allowing Musharraf to stay in power with Benazir as the Prime Minister while withdrawing all corruption cases against her or some such political wheeling dealing, whose substance may not be as relevant as the curious combination of power broking concessions.

Benazir seems to be testing waters after the Chaudhury episode and may go the way wind blows. These political confabulations make it difficult for Musharraf to push through an extension as President for another five year term in the outgoing Parliament. In the unlikely possibility of his succeeding, a rebellious judiciary may ensure that an appeal in courts makes the Parliamentary dictate unconstitutional. While Musharraf with the backing of the Army was attempting to stave off such a situation by literally bullying Chaudhury into submission, this move has back fired.

America Musharraf�s staunch supporter is also having second thoughts. The first indications of talks of a possible successor with names as Ahsan Saleem Hayat are already doing the rounds. But Washington will only act when it finds that the time is ripe. Moreover it cannot destabilize Pakistan when the insurgency in Afghanistan is at a crucial stage. Perhaps the General is taking advantage of just such a predicament.

The wily General is now faced with a piquant situation where except for the Army, all his supporters are graciously waiting for that one tipping moment when he is unstable to either cut him to size which means that he relinquishes the post of the Chief of the Army Staff or even topple him though the latter is unlikely. For Musharraf the best case scenario may be retaining the post of the President thereby making him more acceptable at least to some of his protagonists including America and Benazir. But in Pakistan, a head of the state who is not the Army chief is seen as a sinecure for people in whom the uniform has lost confidence.

What ever be the situation that unfolds over the next few months in Islamabad, the end game is in sight for Musharraf, it is only that as all dictators he appears to be purblind to reality. Sadly his fall may also be a period of great instability on Pakistan�s Western borders, delay moves of peace with India over Kashmir and subvert plans for a moderate state in Pakistan. But these can wait for a democratic government in Pakistan may provide the answers to stability in South Asia in the decades ahead.  

May 27, 2007

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