It
is not very often in Indian political history that a chief minister
in a state with a background of fractured politics gets such a
golden chance to emerge victorious. In the last 16 years, the state
of Uttar Pradesh, which is one of the most backward in India, has
stitched the most odd bedfellows together to form governments that
have delivered little.
All of a sudden, defying all media pundits and opinion polls and
exit polls, emerges Mayawati flashing an ironical smile with one
golden tooth glinting with the flashbulbs popping. She has managed a
majority win in the assembly polls. What is amazing is that she has
done it with her backward class supported Bahujan Samaj Party
weaving in a rainbow coalition not with backward class candidates
anymore; but with high caste Brahmins and minority Muslims.
The Uttar Pradesh electorate was never known to rise beyond narrow
caste parochialism, but this time as the upper castes voted for Brahmin
candidates, the lower castes for lower caste candidates and Muslims for
Muslim candidates, the combo worked. It was a win win situation. But the
fact that with this she managed a majority is no mean achievement in a
state dogged by messy and anachronistic coalition politics.
Is she ushering in a social revolution, the media asks.
Unlikely. She is one of India’s shrewdest politicians who have learnt
how to deal with the male dominated society and beat them at their caste
configuration games. With her penchant of a deep, simmering hate against
the upper castes all these years, it seems difficult that she will even
want a social revolution as she is more focused on mobilizing the lower
caste votes all over India and building her base.
Mayawati is an ambitious woman. Minutes after it was clear that she was
romping home, she unabashedly said that she looks forward to the day she
would be Prime Minister. But the skill of playing with caste
combinations apart, she should know that it is no easy climb to the top.
In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati has an opportunity of a lifetime today.
She can now move forward to demolishing the backward state label that
the state has and put it on a path of progress, change and development.
UP is known as the badlands of India with its high crime rate. She can
change that.
If she does not change the face of the state, history will never forgive
her. She can actually make a difference if she has the political will
and the desire to develop a vision. There is little time to waste. She
has to learn fast.
For many political analysts, it came as a relief that the loud campaign
of superstar Amitabh Bachchan who said in a television ad that there is
no crime in UP, fell flat on its face. Amitabh did this incredulous ad
when the media was full of reports of how many children had been killed
after they were reported missing in Noida, the showcase city of UP.
Amitabh, as the world knows, is very close to Mulayam Singh Yadav, who
headed the Samajwadi Party’s government that was in power before the
elections.
Mayawati has shown that she is no novice. In a smart calculated move,
she fielded 403 BSP candidates. As many as 139 were from the upper
castes. Eighty-six were Brahmins, 38 were Thakurs, 14 were Vaishyas and
one was a Kayastha. Sixty-one were Muslims.
Of them, 51 upper caste candidates and 30 Muslims won-that is 39 per
cent of BSP’s 206 MLA’s. In the process, she ended up winning 108 more
seats than in the last 2002 assembly elections. She also got her party
to poll 7 per cent more votes this time.
It is tough to swallow the analysis of her trusted right hand Brahmin
leader, Satish Chandra Mishra, when he says that the Brahmins and Dalits
were natural allies and that their coming together was a sign of social
harmony. Naturally, onlookers are skeptical as the social reality of
casteism based on political division and hatred is too intense to be
kissed goodbye.
A more realistic analysis would be that UP politics was always caste
based and still is. In this election too, caste and community wooed
voters. Voters did not vote for a social revolution that would unite
Brahmin s and Dalits. It is common knowledge in India how deep the caste
divide is. Dalits voted to power in panchayats on seats reserved only
for them have often found they were not allowed to function by the
higher castes. Every state in India is full of such examples and the
media hype of Mayawati emerging, as a social revolutionary holds no
water.
The good news is that at last UP is out of the clutches of a fractured
coalition that worries more about the length of its term than
governance. Mayawati is here to stay for five years and here is her
golden chance. To govern. To transform a backward state into a
prosperous one. To create opportunities. To industrialize. To ensure
literacy. To bring in health services. The list is long and she has to
start governing.
UP is today one of the most backward states in India in terms of
development parameters like education, health, employment, industrial
growth, law and order, crimes against women and so on.
UP is at the bottom.
Its only competitor in backwardness was Bihar, but with Nitesh Kumar as
Chief Minister, that might change. UP will have to work harder to not be
at the bottom of an otherwise resurgent India.
Mayawati in the current given circumstances was a good bet and the
electorate backed her. It is clear that they now expect governance.
Mayawati has to understand that development is more crucial than
casteist politics if she wants to grab another term and fend of the
anti-incumbency vote.
In her earlier avatars as UP’s Chief Minister, she frittered away her
terms building Ambedkar parks and adorning the state with his statues.
No wonder sculptors in Rajasthan celebrated when Mayawati won hoping for
fresh orders. She had lavish birthday celebrations cutting a 51 kg cake.
Such symbolism may prove costly this term. Even illiterate hungry
electorates are learning the power of their votes.
She cannot afford to be impulsive anymore or take pride in her
arrogance. Or openly ask for donations and be seen to encourage
corruption. You cannot become Prime Minister with that kind of image
anymore.
She now has to act and it must go beyond her favorite pastime of
transferring IAS and IPS officers. She has to ensure that law and order
becomes one of her top priorities.
The biggest weight around her neck is charges of corruption, the 175
crore rupees Taj corridor scam and a disproportionate asset case. She
has to reform and work hard to change her negative image and not wallow
in her arrogance. She also has to change the image of her party that can
no more be seen as a backward class party if it has to grow. It needs to
have a vision not just for UP but for India. As whatever happens in UP,
will have a fallout on Indian governments.
Mayawati does not have an easy job.
UP is in the grip of criminal politicians and mafia controlling various
interests. The bureaucracy is also caste ridden and unmotivated because
of political upheavals. Most of the schools in rural UP do not function.
Poverty is rampant. Opportunities for the educated young are few. Then,
there are health concerns as the healthcare facilities are pathetic.
Agriculture also needs a boost. Environmental concerns are looming large
and have got scant political attention. Water management, rising
pollution and falling water tables need to be addressed.
Mayawati has already started transferring scores of officers who she
suspects were close to Mulayam Singh Yadav. Various industrial and
construction projects, which Mulayam initiated, have been stopped. One
of those affected will be Mulayam’s friend, industrial tycoon, Anil
Ambani, who was slated to invest crores of rupees in various projects.
She has also inducted two ministers with criminal records.
How is Mayawati going to be in 2007, is the question to ask. And watch.
The man on the street in up is hoping against hope that he will get to
see more of bijli, sadak and pani. (Electricity, roads and water) as
these are the issues that have been not been tackled the way it should
in the last six decades of independence.
Mayawati needs to deliver.
These elections must teach her not to take the electorate for granted.
Work hard, madam, if you are looking at the parliament in New Delhi.
There is a long way to go.
May 28, 2007
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