Opinion
Pakistan and India Elections
in Jammu and Kashmir
by
Ashok Jaitly
Even as the
fascinating play of government formation unfolds in Pakistan after the
historic elections last month, political analysts on this side of the
border have begun to spin their theories on what the future holds for
India-Pakistan relations.
Will the new coalition government be strong enough to rein in the
Taliban forces in the northwest? What will be the role of the army and
its recalcitrant intelligence agencies, particularly the insidious ISI
(Inter-Services Intelligence)? Will infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir
be curbed? Most importantly, what will be the new regime's approach to
the interrupted Kashmir dialogue? Vexatious questions all.
President Pervez Musharraf must be given credit for opening a new and
unorthodox chapter in the resolution of the Kashmir tangle. Both Prime
Ministers Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh responded courageously enough.
Apart from CBMs (confidence building measures), like the softening of
the borders, easing travel and cultural exchanges and reviving trade
talks, the not-so-confidential second track diplomacy appeared to be
heading towards a positive resolution. All this was greatly welcomed in
Kashmir, even by separatist groups like the Hurriyat, albeit grudgingly.
The ultra extremist Syed Ali Geelani being the exception.
From all accounts, the surprisingly free and fair elections in Pakistan,
the dramatic results and the resurgence of democratic processes have
surprised many, including the Kashmiri political groups. Nevertheless,
despite the enthusiastic public rhetoric, these have also thrown up
serious doubts about their own future strategy. Let us not forget that
2008 is also an election year for Jammu and Kashmir. Let us also not
forget that it may well be an election year for the Indian parliament.
In any case, March 2009 is not very far off.
In Jammu and Kashmir, electoral winds have started to blow down from the
snowy peaks. Even though the gloves have not been completely taken off,
all the three main protagonists - Farooq Abdullah's National Conference,
Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's People's Democratic Party and the reluctant
Ghulam Nabi Azad's Congress - have already set the pot to boil.
Each has been holding public rallies in the opponents' strongholds,
obviously to bolster its own vote bank. Biased prognostications about
the impact of these meetings are further confusing the menu. And the
Hurriyat's pussyfooting about its own position on the forthcoming
elections is only adding "much to the masala". For the present, the end
result is anybody's guess, but one thing is certain; it is going to be
one steamy bubbling stew.
This is not an attempt to gaze into the future electoral mirror for
Jammu and Kashmir but to underscore the impact of the Pakistani
electoral verdict and its political build-up over the last year on the
political perspectives in Kashmir. Musharraf was certainly seen as a
"moderate", willing to find an honorable compromise.
His four-point formula was welcomed by most in Srinagar even though
hardliners like Geelani and militant groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen
and Lashkar-e-Taiba saw it as a sell-out. However, Musharraf's desperate
attempts to hold on to power, with the sacking of judges, repression of
media and banning of political activity dismayed even the optimists. The
moderate aura was gone. Pakistan was no longer seen as the savior. And
yet, ironically, hope continued to float for a Kashmir settlement, as if
this could be independent of Pakistan's internal turmoil.
Partly because of Pakistan's own domestic preoccupation and partly
because of the government of India getting itself into a bind over the
India-US nuclear agreement with its self-opinionated ally the CPI-M and
its bete-saffron the BJP, Kashmir was not just put on the backburner but
vanished from the South Asian political radar.
The crises in Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh helped to divert attention
even further. Helpless, the Kashmiri politicians had no option but to
withdraw into their small time wrangling accusations of corruption,
inept governance and Azad's defensive claims about a shining "J& K". One
of the harshest winters in recent times with its rigors of
connectivity, electricity, fuel and water added to the "isolation". Not
surprisingly, the citizenry has continued to grow even more cynical.
So how do the political parties approach the October (if not earlier)
elections? The National Conference has reverted to its "autonomy"
platform fuelled by the strong anti-incumbency factor. The PDP is torn
between its vague "self- governance" mantra and a love-hate relationship
with the ruling Congress, not to mention its intra- party vitriol. As
for the Congress, its last three years' performance has few takers and
the leadership has been embarrassed by Saifuddin Soz being sent to
replace the discredited Peerzada Mohammed Sayeed as the state party
chief.
As the election tempo gets charged, the Hurriyat is cornered into the
"Prince of Denmark" role. To participate means swearing allegiance to
the Indian constitution and bidding goodbye to separatism; if not 'azadi'.
Not to be in the fray means continuing to wander in the wilderness,
looking for some bulwark other than Pakistan, which is really more
concerned with putting its own house in order.
Yet, all the political parties and formations barring the Congress have
no option but to continue to talk about improving India-Pakistan
relations in one form or the other to establish their bonafides. Duality
becomes the dilemma.
Where does all this leave the Kashmir people who continue to suffer the
indignities of human rights violations with no redressal and continue to
nurse their alienation from the Indian mainstream? High and dry as
usual, it would seem, unless the next general election brings in a
government in New Delhi that can act with humanity, determination and
sagacity.
(Ashok Jaitly, a former chief secretary of Jammu and Kashmir, is
currently a distinguished fellow of The Energy and Resources Institute,
TERI. He can be reached at ajaitly@teri.res.in)
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