Opinion
Will the N-deal Finally Go Ahead?
by K. Subrahmanyam
The Indian
government has completed the negotiation of the India-specific
Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
and it is now ready to be submitted to the Board of Governors for
approval. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee is to meet the Left
parties Monday to apprise them about the draft safeguards pact.
Mukherjee is also due to travel to the US to participate in Indo-US
Joint Commission meeting, which is co-chaired by him along with US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He is expected to hand over a copy
of the draft safeguards agreement to her.
The Left had earlier indicated that it would not agree to the government
going ahead with the safeguards agreement.
The Left allowed the government to proceed with the negotiations on the
safeguards agreement with the IAEA to save the government's face on the
eve of the Gujarat elections.
Their present pronouncements appear to indicate that they do not
consider it necessary to come to the aid of the government. In fact
allowing the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to
successfully negotiate the IAEA safeguards and then veto its submission
to the Board of Governors will amount to subjecting the government to
far greater humiliation than the domestic loss of face it would have
suffered if it had not gone to the IAEA at all.
The safeguards agreement with the IAEA is essential if India were to
restrict its civil nuclear cooperation with Russia and France and not
import any civil reactor or obtain any civil nuclear technology from the
US.
Therefore it is not logical to connect at this stage the conclusion of
the IAEA safeguards agreement with either the Hyde Act or US imperialism
or any other extraneous issue. Objection to the conclusion of the
safeguards agreement would mean that the Left is opposed to India
obtaining reactors from Russia and France. If that is so, then they
could have said so and need not have brought in the Hyde Act and US
imperialism as excuses.
The strategy of the Left is now becoming clearer. Communist Party of
India-Marxist (CPI-M) general secretary Prakash Karat addressing the Jan
Sangarsh Rally March 13 in Lucknow called for the formation of a third
alternative and appealed to secular and democratic forces to assist the
party towards the fulfilment of the objective.
Therefore, the CPI-M is interested in denigrating the Congress and
ensuring that the UPA does not come to power again.
The best way of denigrating the Congress is to threaten to withdraw
support from the government on a major international deal after having
allowed the government to commit itself deeply in it.
If the government pulls out of the deal to continue in office for a few
more months then it will be humiliated internationally and such
humiliation and the veto of the Left for the deal will come in handy for
electoral propaganda to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Left's calculation appeared to be that if both the UPA and the NDA
fail to mobilise adequate strength to form the next government, that
will open the gate for the Left to sail towards power as part of the
Third Front. In the 1930s in Europe, Communist parties under Stalin's
directions trained all their guns on Social Democratic parties. That did
not lead to the victory of the Left but in the victory of the rightist
forces.
Let us look at the interests of the UPA. The ruling coalition has
announced Rs.600 billion debt relief for the farmers, given tax
reductions to the middle class and is expected to release the Pay
Commission report which will raise the emoluments of employees first in
the central government to be followed by similar raises in the pay
packets of state and local bodies employees.
If this largesse is not immediately cashed in terms of votes within the
next few months, memory will fade and the ruling party will not be able
to reap the benefit.
Secondly, it is clear that the industrial production of the first
quarter of this year is nearly half of what it was last year. There is
general expectation of US economy getting into a recession with
consequences for all other economies of the world. The dollar is falling
in value and the oil price is rising. Food prices are also rising all
over the world. These developments indicate that the economic outlook in
the next year is likely to be less favourable than it is now.
Therefore, the UPA government will have to assess whether it will be to
its advantage to humiliate itself by allowing the Left to veto the
further processing of the IAEA safeguards and that way get a few more
months in office and then face the elections when the economic
conditions are likely to be less favourable.
On the other hand, going ahead with the IAEA safeguards and the NSG
waiver will demonstrate to the potential third front participants that
the Left cannot call the shots and does not wield that kind of clout.
Either the Left has to blink and go along with the UPA or withdraw its
support and precipitate an election. All indications are that the Left
is not likely to do well if the elections are to take place in the near
future.
The Left has been against the deal, which will liberate India from the
technology denial regime of the last three and half decades presumably
because a high growth rate and an accelerated reduction in poverty are
against the interests of the party.
Yet they allowed the government to go ahead with the separation plan of
nuclear facilities, the enactment of Hyde legislation, the 123 agreement
and the initiation of the IAEA safeguards agreement.
There is no reason why they should not allow the government to go ahead
with the conclusion of IAEA safeguards agreement even while protesting
all the time about US imperialism. Unfortunately most of our media and
political class have not focused adequate attention on the strategy of
the Left and the probability of its success.
Once the budget is passed, the moment of truth will arrive. In any case
since the Left is not going to be part of any alliance and therefore
will campaign on their own in the next election both against the NDA and
the UPA.
Since they want a third front they will not be supporting the UPA till
the Lok Sabha's term expires. They will have to part ways a little
earlier to campaign against the UPA. If that is assessed as six months,
then even if UPA surrenders to the Left, their parting of ways is likely
to be in October. Elections this year will be more advantageous to the
UPA and in all likelihood the UPA will go ahead with the nuclear deal.
Some people raise the question of the propriety of the 123 agreement
being signed by a minority government. Out of 192 national governments
in the world, how many are in a position to talk about a government
being supported by majority. Not in two-thirds of the cases since they
are not democracies - as happens to be the case with China.
In any case this parliament is about to finish four years and our MPs
will need to check whether they still represent the majority public
opinion or out of touch with it. If a future government finds any
particular agreement entered into as unsatisfactory it will be its
sovereign right to reopen it.
(K. Subrahmanyam is India's pre-eminent analyst on strategic and
international affairs. He can be contacted at ksubrahmanyam51@gmail.com)
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