Opinion
India Needs to Shake Hands
with Maoists in Nepal
by Pranay Sharma
India's inability to
correctly predict the outcome of the Nepal elections indicates its
mindset as well as its failure to keep pace with the changing ground
reality in the neighboring country. It is hardly a consolation that like
New Delhi, many key international players were also wrong in their
assessment of identifying the Maoists as the winner of the Nepalese
polls.
India's stakes in Nepal are much higher than those of Western countries
like the US or those from the European Union. It not only shares a long
and porous border with Nepal but its economy and security are also
closely linked with the neighbors. In addition, many major rivers
flowing into India originate in Nepal. A sizeable section of the
Nepalese population is made up of ethnic Indians.
The Maoists entered the Nepalese political scene nearly 13 years ago.
But successive Indian governments continued to ignore their growing
clout even as the Maoists were in control of over 75 percent of the
country.
India's Nepal policy had been based on the "twin pillars" of a
constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. Striking a balance
between the palace and the democratic parties in Nepal served New Delhi
well for years.
A significant shift in the mood of the people away from the monarch
became discernible from the time Gyanendra succeeded his slain brother,
Birendra, as the king of Nepal. Backed by the Royal Nepal Army, whose
links with the Indian armed forces run deep, the leadership in New Delhi
went on supporting Gyaendra, though the monarch's style of functioning
had irked many Indian and Nepalese political leaders.
India's misreading of the situation in Nepal perhaps came to the fore
two years ago when Gyanendra faced one of his worst crises in the wake
of growing demands for his ouster. By sending Karan Singh, the son of
the former maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir to talk to Gyanendra, New Delhi
gave out a signal that it was not in sync with the ground reality in
Nepal. The mood in Nepal then was not for a compromise; it was for an
early exit of the king.
The Indian Left salvaged the situation for the government to some extent
when it took the initiative of working out a ceasefire agreement and a
peace plan between the Maoists and the other major political parties in
Nepal. The fact that turning Nepal into a republic formed the basis of
the peace plans was not lost on India.
But for a long time sections in the Indian establishment continued to
hope that even in the changed scenario the king would play a role.
It is now certain that the Maoists would dominate the future government
in Nepal. It is also a foregone conclusion that the king would now have
to go and Nepal would now become a republic. The Nepali Congress, a
party which key officials in the Indian government were comfortable
with, would end up playing second fiddle to the Maoists. So would the
Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist and many others.
India would have to re-work its equation with the Maoists. The Left
parties in India could yet again play a role to bridge the gap between
the Maoists and New Delhi. Both the Indian government and Maoist leader
Prachanda have expressed hope they would be able to work together in
future. But it would have to go much beyond words and sound bytes for TV
journalists.
The Maoists would have to feel comfortable with the Indian government.
They would have to sift through the rhetoric and identify issues that
are crucial for Nepal's independence, stability and progress.
On its part, India would have to realize that the wrong assessment it
made could only get worse if it continues to treat the Maoists in Nepal
with suspicion. A friendly government in Kathmandu is essential for New
Delhi. And so is India's support for any government in Nepal. The sooner
these facts get recognized in the two capitals, the better would it be
for the people of India and Nepal.
(Pranay Sharma writes on strategic and foreign policy affairs. He can be
contacted at pranay.s@ians.in)
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