A couple of years ago it
would have been almost unimaginable that Nepal torn by internal conflict
and violence by Maoists would dump monarchy to embrace democracy.
Nepal today has the distinction of being a nation that has got Maoists
who rode to power not with the barrel of a gun, but with getting people
to use the ballot box. Most political pundits thought that the Maoists
whose violence had ended in killing over 10,000 would be trounced, but
voters had other ideas.
There is a new dawn in Nepal one of the poorest countries of the world.
It is now for the Maoists to turn it around, change the history of their
underdeveloped country and surge into the future. Suddenly there is
hope.
And hope has made most of the 27 million population heave a sigh of
relief. After all, the Himalayan kingdom had seen unprecedented violence
in the last ten years. Now, these insurgents are talking of peace and
development, of rewriting the constitution to end the 250 year old
monarchy and give power to the people who elected the Communist Party of
Nepal (Maoists) to power.
The crown does not sit lightly on the head of King Gyanendra Bir Bikram
Shah Dev anymore. Prachanda, the Maoist supreme leader says that he has
to go. He has even suggested that the Palace where the King presently
lives with his family, be converted into a national museum so that
future generations can understand the history of Nepal and its march to
democracy.
King Gyanendra was forced to relinquish his direct rule in April 2006
after sustained strikes and violence in the streets. He retreated into
his heavily guarded palace as anti-monarchy7 slogans echoed in the air.
Parliament then clipped his powers reducing him to a ceremonial figure.
History meanders in strange unpredictable ways. In June 2001, after the
then King Birendra and Queen Aishwariya were shot dead at the dinner
table by their drunk son, Birendra who then shot himself, Gyanendra was
the murdered King’s younger brother. He assumed powers as King
immediately as the people mourned in a state of shock. No one wanted to
see him as King. Simmering discontent followed. No one seemed to want
him there. In February 2005, King Gyanendra had assumed absolute powers
and set up a pro-monarchist cabinet thinking he was finally secure. The
army protected him and was also out on the streets fighting the people.
Ironically, after he assumed total power, his decline started. People
were out in the streets demanding freedom. He had to bow to their wishes
and got a puppet government installed. But it was not the same anymore.
He soon lost control of the army, for the first time, his picture was
removed from currency notes, his annual $3.1-million allowance was
denied. He must have then realized that he was better off earlier as a
businessman. As election results poured in, there were rumours in
picturesque Kathmandu that the King was planning to flee to India.
It has been quite an election that the people never witnessed before:
10,000 polling booths, 10,000 candidates, over 234,000 election
supervisors and 2,000 foreign election observers. But there was a good
feel when it got over as they saw democracy triumph.
Over 20,000 Maoist fighters are now over ground and at the moment seem
to have given up an armed struggle. Not everyone is sure. Before the
results came in, there was widespread fear that the country would be
rocked with violence if the Maoists lost. Political opponents prefer to
be cynical about the Maoists coming to power and would rather wait and
see.
The Maoists had put an end to their armed struggle when King Gyanendra
was forced to hand back power to the people in 2006. He had to do it as
people were out in the streets venting their anger. As a coalition
government was then put in place, the Maoists joined in saying that they
respected the democratic process. At that time, no one dreamt that
Prachanda would actually be the victor. Probably, voters opted for
change as they were fed up with corruption scandals rocking both the
mainstream Nepali Congress and the Unified Marxist-Leninist, with left
leanings. Prachanda’s speeches of how Nepal needs to be rescued and
rebuilt might have caught the imagination of the young. Leaders of both
the routed parties have resigned.
But holding the reins of power is not going to be easy for the Maoists.
Nepal has multiple problems that need urgent tackling and it will need a
coalition to go along with them. As of now, the Maoists are willing to
take on partners who will walk with them as they know that it is not
going to be easy to deliver to a very expectant populace. They have to
decide what to do with their 23,000 armed forces. The Maoists have
suggested that they be integrated with the 90,000 strong royalist army
but the army may not want to rub shoulders with indoctrinated cadres.
More than anything else, there are huge expectations the people now
suddenly have.
Then there is drafting of the new constitution which is not easy. All
aspirations cannot be met when it is rewritten as there are groups that
want more autonomy and even the right to self-determination. Prachanda
is now taking of taking a fresh look at all treaties with India. As a
big neighbour on which it is hugely dependent at the moment, they have
to tread carefully. Political tightrope walking is different from
insurgency and guerilla warfare in the jungles. There were charges
against the Maoists that they indulged in extortion in villages on the
fringes of jungles they operated in and even kidnapped children to
recruit them into the cadre.
There is hope that the Maoists will also in some way water down the
caste system that is so strong in Nepal. But for a system that has been
entrenched in the Nepali mind for centuries, it is not going to be easy.
Despite his Maoist leanings, Prachanda knows very well that if he has to
make a difference, Nepal has to economically grow. He has said that he
is determined to demolish Nepal’s remnants of feudalism and not
capitalism. Prachanda has inherited a shaky economy and will have to
bring in reforms and attract capital if he has to put it on the rails.
So the initial fear of nationalization of industry does not hold as the
Maoist leader has said that he is not against capitalism and foreign
investment.
India played a major role in the peace process by getting various
parties together in 2005. It also aggressively advocated the importance
of having elections and marching towards democracy. But New Delhi has
not treaded as carefully as it should. Before the elections, New Delhi
put its foot into its mouth saying it would be happy to see the Nepali
Congress win. After the landmark victory of the Maoists, the foreign
office was red in the face. But it has tried to quickly mend fences with
Prachanda. One probable fear is that the success of Maoists in Nepal
will trigger off more aggressive Maoist activity in India.
Ties with Nepal have always been crucial for India as it would not want
it to move closer to China. India is also its biggest trading partner.
India’s challenge is to make this a turning point in bilateral relations
with Nepal. Prachanda said in an interview recently that he is looking
forward to working with India as that is the only way to bring stability
and prosperity in Nepal and cooperation is the only way. It is clear
that Nepal will now want to rework its ties, look at how to regulate the
border, allowing Gorkha soldiers to work in the Indian army among other
things.
What is really amazing in this Nepal story is how the Maoists gave up
the bullet for the ballot. It is a story that Indian Maoists could learn
from.
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A couple of years ago it
would have been almost unimaginable that Nepal torn by internal conflict
and violence by Maoists would dump monarchy to embrace democracy.