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PlainSpeak
India’s Security
Environment
Turbulent and Uncertain
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
As the year 2006 is nearing an end India’s security environment is
marked by turbulence and uncertainty on all its peripheries. It seems to
be an uncommon coincidence that at the same time South Asian countries
on all the flanks of India seem to be politically disturbed, politically
restless and with internal conflicts dominating their domestic scenes.
The political turbulence and internal conflict that is rearing its head
in these countries predominantly arises from the political dynamics that
prevail in each of these countries. It also arises from a combination of
external influences that intrude into their political affairs ranging
from religious, ideological and ethnic reasons.
Notwithstanding the above, the point that needs to be made strongly is
that India cannot be averse to such an adverse security environment on
her peripheries. It also needs to be pointed out that India too is
responsible for this worsening security environment. This arises from
either directly from some Indian policies or even more importantly from
the lack of Indian policies towards developments in her neighborhood.
Such Indian policies are either determined again by a strange
combination of external factors , minority vote-bank considerations, and
pressures of political partners of the ruling Congress Government
coalition . Having said that let us now survey the South Asian scene in
light of the preceding observations.
Pakistan on India’s Western flank has been in perpetual conflict with
India ever since 1947. It has displayed a marked propensity to generate
armed conflicts with India and Afghanistan. It has been involved in
proxy war and terrorism against both its neighbors. What have been
India’s responses to Pakistan’s provocations? India has all along
adopted soft responses and a reluctance to meet head-on the military
provocations from Pakistan. In every war with Pakistan when Indian Armed
Forces were on the of total victory over Pakistan, India’s political
leadership of the day caved in to pressures from the United States to
desist from the ultimate objective.
The scene with regard to Pakistan at the close of 2006 is the same. With
clear evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in Mumbai’s 7/11 bomb blasts in
July this year and involvement of Pakistan-affiliated Indian
organizations like the SIMI in the Malegaon bomb blasts thereafter, the
Indian Prime Minister still wants to visit Pakistan in search of an
elusive peace. Pakistan’s wayward provocations towards India required
direct responses of carrying proxy war back into Pakistan as a terrorism
deterrence measure. India’s lack of policies has been exhibited by the
present Government’s scrapping of the Anti-Terrorism Act POTA and its
reluctance to reenact a similar stringent law necessitated by the string
of Pakistani connected bomb incidents that have taken place during the
tenure of the present Government. This reluctance is generated by
considerations of Indian Muslim vote banks.
Moving Northwards one comes to Nepal. I have already written enough in
this column earlier highlighting how India has by the lack of foreign
policies determined by its national security considerations has gifted
away Nepal to the Maoists and China. India has not only lost a buffer
state between it and Tibet but also has allowed the extinction of the
only Hindu Kingdom in the world in the process. India laid an
over-emphasis on democracy in Nepal but remains totally oblivious to
democracy in Pakistan-a case of blatant double-standards. The mess that
has taken place in Nepal endangering India’s security has arisen because
the Congress Government let the Communist Party (Marxist) hijack and
handle its Nepal policy to the benefit of Nepal’s Maoists with whom they
are ideologically inclined.
Bangladesh on India’s East is in political upheaval in the run-up to its
elections due in January 2007. The struggle ongoing in Bangladesh is
fundamentally driven by the outgoing Government supported by Islamic
fundamentalist parties wishing to retain power by manipulating the
Caretaker Administration and the Election Commission. If India had been
firm some years back it could have prevented the emergence of Islamic
fundamentalist parties coming into political power. India also has been
woefully weak in responses to Bangladesh being used as a Eastern
springboard by Pakistani intelligence agencies which have been active in
destabilizing India’s North Eastern States. Here again the impediments
were the compulsions of India’s Leftist Parties not wishing to endanger
their Muslim minority vote banks and the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants
on fake voting cards supporting them.
Lastly, moving to the South to Sri Lanka which has cried itself hoarse
requesting a Defence Pact with India and seeking Indian intervention to
neutralize the Tamil separatist organization, the LTTE. It is in Indian
national interests that Sri Lanka exists as a unified country well
disposed towards India. Once again, India’s domestic policy compulsions
in humoring its coalition partner in Tamilnadu State has prevented India
from assisting the Sri Lanka Government and thereby creating a strategic
vacuum which can be filled by Pakistan and China.
India aspires to be a global power but it cannot become one until it
first exhibits the will and capacity to first control its own
neighborhood. India’s neighborhood must learn to respect India’s
strategic sensitivities and be mindful of the fact that India as the
predominant power in South Asia can enforce its writ. But that status
can only be reached provided India displays the will to enforce its
writ.
To be a global power, the currency is to use India’s hard power
concurrently with its Soft Power. Soft Power alone cannot move
India towards the global power status that it seeks.
December 6, 2006
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PlainSpeak
The Week of December 3, 2006
India's Security Environment: Turbulent and
Uncertain by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Sensible Security Strategies by Gaurang Bhatt, MD
Nepal: Raising Hopes of Normalcy by Col. Rahul
K. Bhonsle
Lawless and Vibrant: Criminal Union Cabinet
Ministers by V. Sundram
It is Not Women Who Declare War by Mehru Jaffer
Living Among Enemies by J. Ajithkumar
The Fate of Mankind: Is the World Heading
Towards War or Peace? by TA Ramesh
Impact of Globalization on Indian Culture
by V. Sundaram
A Rebel of Innocence by Ashwini Ahuja
Trip to Heaven by Arya Bhushan
When the Sun Sets by Dr. Manasi Dutt
Meenaxi by Dibyendu Ghosal
Rinanubandh by Julia Dutta
A Country Deluged by VK Joshi
Food for Thought by Attreyee Roy Chowdhury
Skiing in Dubai by Rajesh Talwar
That Thing Called Love by Tuhin Sinha
The Witty Side by Melvin Durai
Mothers Feeling Blue by Rasana Atreya
'Silence is Complicity' by Elayne Clift
Dissent through Dance and Drama by
Deepti Priya Mehrotra
Concrete Threat to Goa's Beaches by Lionel
Messias
Imprisoned by Daylight by Swapna Majumdar
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