Pakistan’s decision to impeach General Musharraf from the self-assumed position of President of Pakistan was inevitable as has been the fate of all military dictators. General Musharraf had outlived his strategic utility to the United States and a denouement had set in as was reflected in my Column of July 6 2008 entitled “United States Denouement With Pakistan”. After nine years of military rule by General Musharraf, the strategic, military, political and economic situation is in a dismal mess as was surveyed in my Column of July 20 2008 entitled “Pakistan Internally and Externally Besieged”. So there is no surprise that Musharraf has lost both external and internal support for his continuance in power in Pakistan.

The political decision to initiate impeachment proceedings was announced jointly on August 7 2008 by the leaders of the Federal Coalition, Asif Ali Zardari and Former Prime Minster Nawaz Sharif. It has taken them nearly six months of torturous negotiations to achieve a consensus. In Pakistan doubts still exist whether this is just a media exercise and Zardari may eventually soft-pedal the proceedings.

Pakistan today stands at critical political cross-roads as whatever be the final outcome of the impeachment proceedings politically things cannot be the same. The implications are many extending from the future course of Pak-USA relations, Pakistan Army’s reactions to Musharraf’s impeachment, Pakistan Army’s future attitude to civil-military relations and political cohesion within the Pakistan polity.

United States had become weary of General Musharraf’s continuous commitments to fully support the American global war on terror and rein in the Taliban from destabilizing Afghanistan from their sanctuaries in Pakistan without delivering on his promises. The United States was also becoming chary of giving unqualified support to General Musharraf in view of his fast declining domestic support within Pakistan and a consequent adverse impact on the overall image of USA in Pakistan.

The United States official response on the announcement of the impeachment of the President has been that it is the internal matter of Pakistan implying that

1. USA would not be averse to the political exit of General Musharraf
2. Also indicative is the fact that the United States would have already discussed this with the Pakistan Army Chief and political leaders that the impeachment could go ahead and that USA would not intervene or intercede on Musharraf’s behalf
3. USA would have worked out alternative plans for the post-Musharraf phase.

It was for nothing that there was a flurry of senior US Administration officials to Pakistan in the last three months.

Pakistan Army’s reactions to Musharraf’s impeachment are being interpreted in Pakistan in opposite ways. One view is that the Pakistan Army would not take kindly to the humiliation of its former Army Chief. The second view is that General Kayani would not like the Army to get into a confrontation with Pakistani politicians in view of the fact that the departure of Musharraf is a popular demand across all sections of Pakistan’s society. Also it would be impossible to ignore that the people of Pakistan are no longer in a mood to tolerate military intervention in political affairs especially when in the instant case the crisis in Pakistan centers on an individual and not on any threat to Pakistan’ security.

This juncture is critical for the Pakistan Army in relation to the future of civil-military relations. If the Pakistan Army intervenes on behalf of Musharraf by providing him back-up support to dismiss the Assemblies then the Pakistan Army’s future image would be one of a ‘rogue army’ with the Pakistani masses. Should it however adopt a neutral attitude on Musharraf’s impeachment while it may win appreciation from the Pakistani public it runs the risk of conveying that it is now amenable to civilian political control.

Political cohesion amongst Pakistan’s political parties is a feature which has been sadly lacking within Pakistan. If however in this instant case both the PPP and PML(N) set a record of unity to impeach General Musharraf, the first foundations of political maturity would have appeared in Pakistan. But then this is a big ‘if’ till the successful ouster of Musharraf.

General Musharraf has only two options to forestall his impeachment. The first is to get the Pakistan Army Corps Commanders to stand by him in dissolving the Assemblies. The second option is to drive a wedge in Pakistan’s polity and politically frustrate the impeachment process. The General can be expected to feverishly try to exploit both options.

Most Pakistanis feverishly hope that General Musharraf would gracefully bow out on his own to spare Pakistan another round of political turbulence, but would he?

August 10, 2008

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