The
devastating hurricane Katrina and the plight of the poor, ignorant, apathetic and
powerless ignored by their leaders, hold an important lesson for India.
Those who do not act in their own interests are compelled to react
ineffectively against the cruel forces of nature or nations that often
pack destructive punch and are amoral, uncaring or self-absorbed. India
and New Orleans are like the (latter's) Tenessee Williams heroine Blanche
Dubois, forever dependent on the kindness of strangers.
The recent agreement between Manmohan Singh and Bush gives India a
pseudo-status as a nuclear power and opens up exports of civilian nuclear
and dual use technology and also raises hopes of foreign direct investment
in infrastructure, much needed by India. The problem is that there is many
a slip betwixt the cup and the lip. The US Constitution requires that any
treaty negotiated by the president needs approval by the Senate. There are
enough opposing factions in the Senate to make the agreement not worth
anything. The current problems with North Korea and Iran pursuing Nuclear
WMDs and the desire of the president and congress to thwart them, are sure
to prevent the Senate’s consent of a logically inconsistent policy by a
lame duck president with falling popularity due to the catastrophic
misadventure in Iraq that is unraveling every day. On the other hand no
one ever went broke betting against a rational or consistent long term
basis for American foreign policy. Recent opposition by sundry
congressmen, senators and Strobe Talbott, against giving India a free pass
for its nuclear policy and remaining outside the NPT does not bode well
for a favorable outcome. India does not have the clout of Israel.
China, on the other hand has a leadership that saw the handwriting on the
wall and with the help of the Taiwanese, Hong Kong and Southeast Asian
diaspora and Japanese as well as American businessmen, has used their
greed to become a cheap manufacturing hub. The American business lobby, as
predicted by Kruschev has been a willing collaborator to sell the Chinese
the very rope that they intend to hang America with. The Chinese have also
learnt the lesson that if you own US treasuries worth a few billion
dollars, you are at their mercy or those of its captive arms like the
World Bank and IMF, but if you own 600 billion dollars worth of
treasuries, both are at each other’s mercy. This is the economic variant
of Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine that led to the balance of terror
in the cold war. Japan with its Emperor worshiping national psyche has yet
to escape from its subservient status.
India’s precarious position is that it is destined to be buffeted by
Brownian movements by forces beyond its control. The widely prevalent
anti-Islamic extremist sentiments are now ubiquitous and provide no
significant preference for its alliance with America, Russia or China. If
anything America’s misguided obsession with Pakistan is a serious
detriment to India’s putting all its eggs in that basket. By allying with
potentially unreliable America capable of turning on a dime, there is also
risk of further alienation of China fearing containment, and its increased
transfer of detrimentally lethal technology like the recent firing of a
cruise missile by Pakistan, most likely based on Chinese assistance. A
recent announcement by Musharraf that the A. Q. Khan chor bazaar
sold nuclear know-how to Korea has not raised America’s hackles. In fact
America has decided to sell Pakistan nuclear capable F-16s and will fuel
the arms race in South Asia by giving Pakistan a Spruance class destroyer
free of charge. This is far more sophisticated naval platform than our
newest destroyers like INS Delhi. America’s conniving at all Pakistani
follies is a serious hazard of the consequences of such an alliance. This
is a subtle and sly method of making India buy Aegis destroyers and F-18
E/F planes at much higher costs. India is permitted to do so under the new
understandings. If India chooses Russian MiGs or French Mirages, it will
have an adverse effect on ratifying the treaty and persuading the nuclear
suppliers’ group from selling it civilian nuclear and space technology.
This compels India to delay its arms procurement till America ratifies the
treaty and convinces the European nuclear suppliers to go along. This is
why India has been compelled to hire former US ambassador Blackwill’s firm
as an expensive lobbyist to bribe and coerce the American Congress to toe
Bush’s line.
China’s strategy with India, while usurping part of Kashmir and not
relinquishing its claim to Arunachal and setting up naval bases at Gwadar
and in the Burmese islands of the Andaman Sea, is what Napoleon told the
Archduke of Austria when signing a treaty after conquering the plains of
Lombardy. His words were," Monsignor, we are not discussing a lasting
peace but a mere suspension of hostilities". China’s fears of encirclement
are as rational as India’s fears of dominance and becoming marginal in
Asia. Barring a seismic change of realities, China are India are destined
not to have an alliance, but spar with mutual suspicion to a stalemate.
Thus any hopes of a significant rapprochement or a genuine alliance with
China are foolhardy pipe dreams. America could commit itself sincerely and
not by mere lip service, to buttress India as a realistic counterbalance
to China. Unfortunately it is still intoxicated by the arrogant hubris of
its power, despite impending debacles in Iraq and even Afghanistan and
hampered by its haunting and morbid fear of the Frankenstein of nuclear
Pakistan, that it created and condoned and the falling into the hands of
non-state terrorists of this arsenal. In the meantime a smart China and a
more needy Russia are indulging in joint military exercises and increasing
economic and military co-operation. Russia has sold China Sovremeny class
destroyers, newer silent submarines and fourth generation multi-role
combat aircraft.
India’s dilemma stems from its energy insufficiency, large Muslim minority
and geographical constraints of a position between Pakistan and
Bangladesh, both fomenting Islamic extremism, illegal immigration and
terrorism. If it aligns with somewhat beleaguered Iran to build a much
needed gas pipeline, it risks alienating temperamental America and more
importantly offending an ideological ally like Israel, that could be
reliable conduit for superior arms technology.
What then should India do? I think the best strategy is what is prescribed
for smart obstetricians. It is called masterly inactivity and requires
active vigilance with open options to choose targeted intervention as
circumstances develop. This means that it should give America, its natural
ally because of shared democratic and secular humanistic values and
strategic goals, to deliver substantially in a period of six months or a
year. I suspect this will not happen despite my preference for it. It is
best then to ally closely with Russia, a dethroned great power in greater
need for alliances. All human relations and particularly those between
nations are based more on need and interests, as Lord Palmerston stated
long ago.
Israel whose interests with India coincide far more than those of America
with India, may be unhappy with energy co-operation between India and
Iran, but is smart and savvy enough, not to be miffed into sacrificing a
long term mutually advantageous relationship, like viscerally
temperamental America mired in its delusion of military power and
oblivious of its waning economic power.
While India per se is not yet a major player, its alignment with one or
another power bloc is sufficient to tilt the balance of global power in
the coming decades, and materially affect future geopolitics. Its problem
is that its leadership has not had the wisdom or foresight to determine
its own destiny or to carve out a future path or goals, while the equally
despicable Chinese leadership, despite myriad faults, has a vision, albeit
formulated by their lust for power and money, their necessity to provide
jobs for their teeming masses, and their desire for vengeance for past
humiliations. None of these are noble causes, but unintended consequences
of base motives often can yield unexpectedly good things. As the old
adages in Sanskrit and English emphasize, out of the mud is born the lotus
( Panke jayati iti pankaja) and the path to hell is paved with good
intentions.
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