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Random Thoughts Nehru may be redeemed for his buildup of research and education institutions and setting up of public sector entities like AEC (now BARC), BHEL, BEL etc. Indira maybe redeemed for her facilitating the birth of Bangladesh, while garnering world sympathy despite the intrigues of the crooked Nixon-Kissinger cabal. If she had chosen the Israeli route of being a covert unannounced nuclear power, she would have retained the goodwill of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and may have prevented the nuclear arms race on the sub-continent. She did not take the steps to achieve independent self-sufficiency in Uranium ore or enrichment when she detonated the bomb and thus brought upon the country sanctions for which it was unprepared. The fault may lie also with our scientists who have been slow to innovate or plan. This is equally evident in the dismal performance of our DRDO’s inability to develop indigenous components of or completed tanks (Arjun), 155mm Howitzers or their ammunition, ATV (nuclear submarine power plant), multi-role combat aircraft (LCA), submarines, aircraft carriers and even adequate numbers and varieties of missiles. Take the example of Russia whose navy was defeated by the Japanese in 1905 and whose total armed forces lost and disintegrated in WW1. After the Bolshevik takeover, by WW2 Russia was manufacturing a great deal of its military equipment and getting it from the Allies lend-lease program. By 1960 it was almost on par with America. In nearly sixty years of independence India is pathetically dependent on Russia, Sweden, UK, France, Italy, US, Germany and Israel for components, spare parts, ammunition, radars, transports, helicopters, aircraft, carriers, submarines, tanks, radar, UAVs, APCs and everything we need. It is this inability to procure or produce enough HEU for civilian nuclear reactors and the inability to build large ones with 500MW or greater capacity that requires us to want the new treaty with America. Our cuddling up to America has required alienation of Iran, our energy supplier and irritated Russia, our major arms supplier. Manmohan’s recent visit to Russia resulted in Russia saying that it will follow the nuclear suppliers group’s decision and limit our access to certain arms source codes, thus downgrading our special relationship. America also is not offering the pact for altruistic reasons and wants its own pound of flesh. It wants to restrain and if possible cap India’s fissile material production and stockpile and missile capabilities to the level of minimal deterrence against China and Pakistan but below any threat to America in range, number or power. It also wants to build up India in economic and conventional military capability to counter and contain China. There is nothing wrong in our reassessing and changing alliances. Nations do that all the time and we have benefited tremendously in our closer relations with Israel. It must be done after deliberation, debate and assessment of consequences and most importantly by our design and not by forced errors or buffeting by forces beyond our control. Thus if we get sufficient technology (civilian nuclear and aerospace as well as defense and commercial), trade and commerce and do not sacrifice our independence, deterrence capability and security, it maybe alright to irritate our present allies and downgrade our relationships provided the price and resultant restraints are not too onerous or ruinous. This requires that the current Indian government publicly release the information regarding our needs, capabilities and benefits of the nuclear pact and allow informed and reasoned public debate. It must not be done in the pig in a poke style Enron electricity and Bofors arms deals for bribes in Swiss Banks, that is the preferred modus operandi of Indian leadership including this one at the very top. Thus we want to avoid thoughtless explosions or invasions, followed by statements of our shining effulgence or bragging "bring them ons" in costumes. These will only end in perpetual repentance for entrapping agreements or military quagmires from which we seek desperate ways out to save face at the cost of blood and treasure as in Kargil or Iraq, while enriching our corrupt coffin buyers or hellish burden military contractors. January 1, 2006
The Week of January 1, 2006
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