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Analysis | Share This Page | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Poll Strategies for 2014! |
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by Dr. Rajinder Puri |
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Analysts are scratching heads trying to decipher poll prospects for 2014. One issue of fierce debate is the impact Mr. Narendra Modi will have on the results. To assess the rationale behind his projection the poll strategy of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Singh (RSS), which is determinedly naming him as the BJP candidate for Prime Minister, needs to be understood. To decipher it and other related issues there are two recent newspaper articles that are noteworthy. First, there was the article by Mr. Abheek Barman in The Times of India entitled “Modi’s Himalayan Miracle”.
The author quoting facts and figures has effectively demolished many claims of the Gujarat Chief Minister. More tellingly he has rubbished the claimed role of Mr. Modi in rescuing 15000 victims from the Uttarakhand deluge. But the most significant revelation of the article undoubtedly was about the deployment since 2007 of the powerful Israel dominated public relations agency, Apco Worldwide, to promote the Vibrant Gujarat summits and Mr. Modi’s image.
The other day BJP President Mr. Rajnath Singh stated that Mr. Modi never claimed that he had rescued 15000 pilgrims from Uttarakhand. Of course Mr. Modi never did that. That was what Apco was being paid $25000 per month for doing. It would be reasonable to infer that many of Mr. Modi’s assertions and projections are inspired by inputs from Apco. As for just one example, his recent presentation of two video studies in the Planning Commission meeting may safely be attributed to this source. In that sense much of the vigorous media and corporate support for Mr. Modi may justifiably be credited to Apco.
The answer seems to be simple. Mr. Modi’s claimed commitment to economic development appeals to the rising new generation of young Indians. The commitment to Hindutva appeals to the traditional pro-Hindu vote bank of the BJP. The strategy opted for Mr. Modi seems to be to marry both commitments and create a groundswell that might give the BJP single party majority which would promise the stability that most Indians desperately yearn for. And how will that marriage be consummated? By convincing India that the Hindu rate of economic growth can be replaced by the new Hindutva rate of economic growth that could make India a superpower. And Mr. Narendra Modi with his background and record as Gujarat Chief Minister is the man to accomplish it.
In a perceptive analysis, “Doing the Modi Math”, Mr. Ashutosh Varshney in The Indian Express has analyzed reasons in the past for the accretion of the vote share by the BJP in elections. Endorsing Mr. LK Advani’s reasoning he has pointed out that the votes jumped mostly through poll adjustments with allies. However there were two exceptions to this. Post Emergency in 1977 and post Mr. Advani’s Ayodhya Rath Yatra in 1991 the BJP significantly increased its tally. The Emergency of course was a rare issue and Indira Gandhi invited failure without help from opponents. The BJP, the Jan Sangh then, united with other opposition parties to exploit the wave. It is with regard to the 1991 experience that I venture to add a caveat. How then might the BJP attempt for single party majority be assessed?
Much depends upon how opponents of the party conduct themselves and what strategy they adopt. Until now Mr. Modi’s poll conduct has been poor. But the conduct of his opponents has been poorer. Mr. Modi erred in undertaking the Uttarakhand rescue mission thinking it would impress voters. His opponents did worse by emulating him. Mr. Rahul Gandhi was ill advised to appear like Mr. Modi’s imitator and visit Uttarakhand by helicopter. The error was compounded by his violating the injunction of Home Minister Mr. Shinde debarring VIPs from visiting the area. The damage was accentuated by Mr. Digvijay Singh’s patently false claim that Mr. Gandhi had traveled by foot. Opposition leaders and Congressmen from Andhra made Mr. Modi look good by openly quarreling at an airport trying to claim credit for the so called rescue of victims. |
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29-Jun-2013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
More by : Dr. Rajinder Puri | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Views: 1546 Comments: 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Comments on this Article
Anil 07/04/2013 04:39 AM
shiv 07/02/2013 11:15 AM
my word 07/02/2013 08:42 AM
anil 07/02/2013 01:49 AM
P V Rajeev 07/01/2013 14:19 PM
Harishchandra Bhat 07/01/2013 13:57 PM
shiv 07/01/2013 11:27 AM
bharat 06/30/2013 12:03 PM
pranlal sheth 06/30/2013 04:35 AM |
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