Analysis

The Amit Shah Bubble!

Shiv Sena leader Mr. Udhav Thackeray advanced the same arguments for debunking the so-called Modi wave as this writer did immediately after the parliamentary elections results were declared. He had pointed out that the results reflected more the strong anti-incumbency Congress wave than a pro-Modi wave. The BJP won only in states where the main opposition was the Congress. Regional parties of Orissa, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and other states performed as well if not better than the BJP.

The one exception was Uttar Pradesh.

The spectacular BJP victory against Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) earned Mr. Amit Shah who masterminded the poll his formidable reputation. The results were freakish inasmuch that the BSP got a 20% vote share but won not a single seat.

In the recent by-election results the BJP has not fared well. But its most spectacular failure is in UP. Of the 11 constituencies the BJP had vacated 10 seats after its sitting MLAs entered parliament. Now the BJP has lost 9 of the 11 by-elections. It is a spectacular setback. One suggests several factors brought this about.

First, the Modi wave affected most the middle class. It was incensed by Congress corruption. Despite his tall poll promises Mr. Modi has done nothing against prevalent corruption mega-scams. Secondly Mr. Modi’s emphasis on development strongly attracted the middle class. Development was the perfect foil to demolish the discredited SP government in UP. But in these by-elections Mr. Amit Shah tried to polarize voters along communal lines in an attempt to consolidate the Hindu vote for a massive victory. Hate speeches made by him and by the newly appointed BJP UP campaign-in-charge, Yogi Adityanath, set an entirely contrary tone to what Mr. Modi’s modernization and development agenda had created. The fact that BJP voters were alienated is born out by the low polling in UP. The BSP did not contest a single seat. That gave prospect to the BJP of mopping up the Dalit vote because of traditional BSP antipathy to SP. Despite this advantage the BJP was trounced.

Thirdly, the style of functioning adopted by Mr. Modi and his chosen favourite Mr. Amit Shah, bordering on arrogance and dictatorship, alienated many traditional BJP workers. That explains the low polling. These by-election results are not necessarily a one time aberration. They merit serious introspection by Mr. Modi. He cannot ride the two horses of modernized development and communal polarization at the same time. He has to make hard choices. If he wants to reclaim his hold on the middle class and the new generation he must openly oppose the communal politics pursued by a section of his party colleagues. If necessary he must not hesitate to dump Mr. Amit Shah. In these by-elections he has not been defeated by any opposition party. He was defeated by his own party. And finally, as he prepares for his trip abroad he might consider that other nations must have also keenly followed these poll results.

17-Sep-2014

More by :  Dr. Rajinder Puri

Top | Analysis

Views: 3366      Comments: 3



Comment You are right - the PM has to get down to doing some serious introspection and an urgent correction of course. BJP needs to be more responsible and nationalistic in UP and rise above communal politics. One hopes the recent poll reverses have a salutary effect on the party's functioning so that voters do realize that they are not going to gain anything much by backing regional entities which breed on caste sentiments. BJP can then hope to give its opponents a good drubbing in the forthcoming assembly elections like what they meted out to the AAP in Delhi in the LS polls.

madathilnair
18-Sep-2014 07:03 AM

Comment By election results proved that 'Sanatan Dharma' is not the proprietary of those who claim to be it's so called real Rakshak or saviours . People know it very well that Sanatan Dharma is the dharma that accepts each and every thing in this universe as God's own creation with equal right... so, those spreading hatred among people, following the Devide & rule Policy will never be aacpted whole heartedly by the truely wise people of India.

Farhat Farooqui
18-Sep-2014 00:33 AM

Comment Udhav has been making blunders,most probably will be swept away.He came out dud backing Sushma and his bargaining on seats will also come a cropper.Debunking Modi wave is a fashionable enterprise for journalists .It does not hold because no way BJP would have secured 282 if they had projected duds like Jaitley or Sushma or the aged pee Advani.As for BJP not winning in states like TN,Orissa or WB or AP are all due to stupid leadership qualities of Advani and his bunch of fellow travellers based in Delhi.They let the party stagnant even rot and have backed leaders in these states where they will be surprised even to get votes from their own partymen/women.As a follower of Indian politics, my understanding is these by polls indicate bugger all what people really think.Low percentage of voting is an indicator they care a damn.Let us wait for the real deal .

shiv
17-Sep-2014 23:25 PM




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