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The Coming Disintegration Of Pakistan and Afghanistan

Jinnah was a egomaniacal, power hungry politician who ran with the baton of Pakistan as a homeland for Indian Muslims, when his leadership ambitions in India fatally collided with reality. A charismatic personality, he used his charm to shamefully woo the impressionable and immature teenage daughter (less than half his age) of his Parsi friend, whose house he had unrestrained access to. He was a non-practicing Muslim belonging to the Shia sect of Islam. While he opposed Gandhi's Khilafat movement support as he condemned it as religious zealotry and had abused his Parsi friend's trust by seducing his daughter, he vehemently opposed his own half Parsi daughter Dina's marriage to Neville Wadia, a Parsi practicing the Christian faith.

His dream of united Muslim Pakistan which was a lie from inception to the present, began unraveling in a few years. Many Muslims who migrated from India and were called Mohajirs sparked resentment from the provincial natives of Sindh and Punjab. The migrant Muslim business community from Kutch, Gujarat and Saurashtra concentrated in Karachi, the only premier business city of Pakistan, by expertise, greater capital or questionable business ethics, dominated the commerce and aspired to greater political power, planting the seeds of discord. These have flourished and led to militancy, armed intimidation and violent conflict. The leader of the Mohajirs, at one time left the country and sought asylum in the UK.

From its birth, Punjab was the most populated and fertile of the four provinces. Baluchistan was the largest, richest in natural resources and with the lowest population density and a small population. The Northwest Frontier province and the FATA were the least industrialized, mostly tribal, more religious and mainly Pashtun, like their brethren across the artificial Durand line frontier with Afghanistan. In NWFP, FATA and Baluchistan, local customs, laws and the writ of local chiefs trumped government writ, authority or law. Sindh is mainly arid, but like fertile Punjab dominated by landlords with a culture of feudalism and oppression of the poor serfs who constitute the majority in both provinces.

The unfair division of the Indus waters and the shoveling of federal pork in favor of Punjab, led to resentment in Sindh. The control of commerce in its capital Karachi by non-Sindhi Mohajirs fueled the unrest even more. The Punjabi dominated central government and armed forces mistreated the distant stepsister Bengali speaking East Pakistan, even more badly. The reduction in general mortality with better healthcare unaccompanied by economic improvement left no reason to practice birth control and the population of India and both Pakistans grew rapidly. East Pakistan soon became more populous than West Pakistan with greater representation in parliament. It also had mainly one political party which held the majority in the single parliament of both Pakistans.

This would have required making Bengali speaking Mujibur Rahman the prime minister of all of Pakistan. As in India, language, caste and religion have always been the factors responsible for lack of progress of South Asian nations. Other equally important factors are the ignorance of the leaders and the electorate and the prominent and conspicuous lack of integrity, character and decency which is ubiquitous in all politicians of all parties and all nations in the subcontinent. As everyone knows that eventually led to the rape and massacre of nearly a million East Pakistanis by the West Pakistani armed forces with the connivance of America, and the birth of Bangladesh, by India as the midwife.

The homeland of all Indian Muslims began fragmenting with civil strife between Mohajirs and Sindhi Muslims. Very soon an obscure Muslim sect called Ahmadis were terrorized legally as non-Muslim infidels. More recently violence against Christians and Shia Muslims became the norm even though Jinnah, the founder was a Shia. Once again American support for the fanatic General Zia was responsible for promoting this mayhem to defeat the USSR invasion of Afghanistan which the Carter administration precipitated to embroil the Soviet Union in its own Vietnam. Saudi Arabia was an equal donor to obscure the un-Islamic lifestyle of its ruling king and princes. The net result was Al Qaeda and Taliban, the Frankensteins now out to destroy America. It led to an even greater problem for perpetually foolish and shortsighted America, a nuclear armed Pakistan and the Khan Walmart for nuclear weapons.

Pakistan military's cozy relationship with zealot religious fanatics is what led to the Talibanization of Afghanistan and now the border with Afghanistan and spreading to its heartland. The resignation of Musharraf was the result of his policy of being seen as a stooge of America. In reality he was no American ally, but a shrewd liar who clandestinely supported the terrorists of Taliban and even Al Qaeda, while milking America to strengthen the Pakistani economy and military to fight India. The ruling political parties are at loggerheads with one another. Sharif and his Punjab based party wants revenge on Musharraf and reinstatement of the illegally fired judges. Zardari and his PPP majority are afraid that a reinstated judiciary may reopen the corruption charges which Musharraf pardoned him for. The combined parties have no ability to oversee the military and the rogue ISI intelligence agency, both of which still decide the country's foreign policy and have total control over the nuclear arsenal.

America is now lost and does not know who to turn to. Its objectives are to prevent conventional terror attacks on itself, prevent the terrorists from gaining access to Pakistani nuclear weapons and assure a safe supply route for its forces occupying landlocked Afghanistan, which is its base for accessing Central Asian oil and gas. America's newfound love for Georgia, Ukraine, Poland etc. is also based on accessing Central Asian energy via safe pipelines and surrounding Russia with anti-missile defenses to achieve full spectrum nuclear dominance. ABMs are not defensive weapons, but first tier offensive ones. They allow the possessor to preemptively strike another nuclear power, destroying the bulk of its nuclear arsenal. The remaining few second strike weapons which survive the preemptive first strike can be effectively neutralized thus escaping Mutual Assured Destruction, the stalemate strategy that prevented nuclear war in the cold war era.

Pakistan now faces an insurgency in NWFP, FATA and Baluchistan, a restive Sindh, widespread terrorist attacks, a deteriorating economy, rampant inflation, a disillusioned America in economic difficulties, unwilling to write blank checks and a divided, corrupt civilian government, a military with poor morale and increasing casualties and an angry and hungry population. NATO and America will tire of expense and casualties in a year or two and the Taliban will eventually form a Pakhtunistan. Baluchistan will secede with Iranian help as will Sindh with India's help. A landlocked nuclear Punjab as a remnant of Pakistan will be effectively marginalized. This time Iran will ensure a satellite Shia state in western Afghanistan, the newly antagonized Russians will promote the merger of the northern and eastern parts into Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. From India's standpoint, it is not a totally bad idea, as the corrupt, weak and inept government of Karzai is unsustainable and consumes a lot of Indian aid. The Russian response to Georgia was a shot across the bow to America and its inane interference in Russia's near abroad.

Unfortunately for America, its own blunders and its retarded ineducable leaders are hell bent on destroying the nation as articles by Andrew Bacevich, Kevin Phillips, Pat Buchanan and Ted Galen Carpenter from the right, George Monbiot, Noam Chomsky and Chalmers Johnson from the left and veteran national security professionals like Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett emphasize. America is in retreat in Latin America (Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia), stalemated in the Middle East (Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria) and stopped cold in the Caucasus by Russia. In India we have a similar problem. The ruling Tarzana, her Little Nkima and her coterie of multiparty apes have reignited the conflagration in Kashmir, while the shortsighted BJP stands ready to add fuel to the fire for political gains in the elections next year. In America Darth Vader, his pet G2B2 and the chest thumping Neocon troglodytes indulge in arson around the world and the democrats cheerfully appropriate funds fueling the fire and demagogue to win the next election. 


More by :  Gaurang Bhatt, MD

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