Random Thoughts

A Sword of Demographics

Damocles, a flatterer was seated at a banquet with a sword hanging overhead by a hair, to make him realize the precarious nature of happiness. Israel and India are nations with a potential rapidly growing antagonistic minority population capable of overtaking or matching majority population and changing the nature, government and existence of the states. One is a Jewish democracy and the other a pseudo-secular one. Both are in the early stages of inundation by a growing Moslem population by birth and or illegal immigration.

Israel, truly understanding the potential future threat of this sword of Damocles hanging over its head, ponders contingency plans and has think tanks whirring fast and furiously, day and night. It may even have a grand strategy to dismantle neighboring states and reformulate them as new Palestinian homelands, as it pursues relentlessly, the policy of new Jewish settlements in the West Bank and makes Jerusalem its capital instead of Tel Aviv. It knows that by 2007 or 2010, the Palestinian population will equal or exceed the Jewish population and one person, one vote policy, will effectively make it a Palestinian state.

India, in blissful ignorance and numbing complacency, slumbers in oblivion, despite a growing Moslem population by birth, conversion, and illegal immigration in tens of millions by impoverished Bangladeshis with antagonistic allegiance. The population and poverty problems of Bangladesh are likely to worsen as its population is expected to exceed 200 million. Pakistan, slightly less impoverished but still essentially consisting of poor illiterate serf-like laborers subdued by a few rich landlords, is likely to double its numbers to 300 million and thus illegal infiltration for economic reasons will be superimposed on the current infiltration for terrorist purposes. The growing illiterate antisocial and fifth columnist Moslem enclaves in India, which are also poor and uneducated, will serve as a haven for their fellow Moslems to hide and seamlessly mingle with. The attack on Akshardham worshippers at Gandhinagar was a harbinger of what is to come with the collusion of local Moslem anti-socials and infiltrated terrorists. It may be constricting and against freedom of choice to prevent conversions, but a poor society can ill afford freedom of religion, when loyalties are for sale for the daily meal and we are confronted with a rabid antagonistic theocracy, while still harboring a large Moslem minority with doubtful allegiance, because of the nature of Islam and its Umma.

The so-called freedom of religion trumpeted by the American founding fathers was restricted to sects of Christianity and never gave equal status to other conflicting religions. Freedom of religion is a luxury that a poor state like India, threatened by a rabidly fanatic, antagonistic theocracy, whose very raison d'etre is hatred for India, with masses itching to defect to any religion for a simple meal can ill afford. The heinous crime of Hinduism of de-humanizing the dalits for millennia is the first issue, which needs to be addressed. The converts of convenience soon become the fanatic zealots of tomorrow, as the birth of Pakistan and the impending disintegration of Indonesia teach us.

India is not as militarily powerful, nor supported by a veto holding lone superpower as Israel is. Its options are to use fencing of wire, electronic or by military personnel, to stem the waves of illegal immigration and offer incentives for family planning and education to its entire population to disarm the ticking demographic time bomb. It must keep the military pressure on Pakistan, to make it give up matching India due to economic inability leading to implosion. This would be like the Reagan military strategy towards the old Soviet Union. It needs to wean China away from Pakistan and relegate Pakistan to a poor conventional military status by its economic handicaps, while trying to match China's economic success closely. Strong economic ties with the EU and USA and streamlining the entry of foreign investment without becoming neo-colonies, is essential. Some emulation of Chinese economic policies is worth considering.

It is necessary to subtly and discreetly influence the governments of neighboring small and weak states if one wishes to have some regional hegemony. This policy should not be restricted to Bhutan and Nepal but also embrace Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. At some point in time, when circumstances are favorable and legitimate grievance available to punish or cripple Pakistan for its rogue behavior (like the attack on our Parliament), a swift and limited lesson should be taught without missing the opportunity. We should not whine constantly about Pakistan lest we get the rebuke that Chris Patten gave us. We should publicize the rogue terrorist and undemocratic nature of Pakistan and Musharraf and advertise his unreliability, instability and his collusion with terrorists. Indira Gandhi set up the world opinion so well, prior to the war that created Bangladesh, the present enfant terrible. Time is running out. Foreign Minister Sinha has warned of Bangladesh being an ISI stronghold. Nepal is falling apart due to a Maoist insurgency and the aftershocks are destabilizing the Indian Northeast. Even more importantly American policies in Afghanistan are failing. This is why Zalman Khalizad, the American official for Afghanistan is warning the border provinces of Pakistan as well as Iran, Russia and India not to arm or favor the Northern Alliance. This bodes problems for Karzai, whose rule extends to his front porch during daylight only on good days, when he is protected by US marines.  


More by :  Gaurang Bhatt, MD

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