Here’s a blunt question set to open your mind:
Who profits when a nation drives on broken roads? Why do the same stretches get patched every monsoon — and fail every monsoon — creating a perpetual revenue stream for a select few? How many rupees do motorists bleed in alignments, tyres, suspensions, and insurance loadings because of “routine” potholes? How many spines, hips, and necks must ache before we admit this is not misfortune — it is a business model?
The Pothole Mafia: How Broken Roads Create a Perverse, Profitable Economy
India’s potholes are not just craters in asphalt; they are cash registers. Each impact transfers money from households to a chain of beneficiaries — contractors, bitumen suppliers, automobile OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and spares networks, tyre and wheel-alignment shops, tow trucks, urban body shops, diagnostic clinics, orthopedics and physiotherapy centers, and, yes, motor and health insurers. The incentives are exquisitely misaligned: short-lived fixes yield recurring bills; recurring bills yield recurring profits.
The Human Cost: Measured in Lives & Lifetimes
- Fatalities Are Real, Not Rhetorical.
The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways’ latest Road Accidents in India 2023 data show 2,161 deaths were attributed to potholes in 2023 — up by approx. 16.4% from the previous year. Uttar Pradesh accounted for more than half of these fatalities, and pothole deaths represented a continuing challenge for road safety in India. That’s not a rounding error; that’s policy failure with a body count.
- Recent Cases Illustrate the Carnage.
In September–October 2025 alone, multiple cities reported deaths where a two-wheeler struck a pothole and the rider was run over — Mumbai/Palghar, Chennai/Tambaram, and Bengaluru’s outskirts among them.
- Monsoon Magnifies Risk.
The season reliably spikes crashes and damage; industry data and city reports show 20–40% jumps in motor claims during rains, owing to waterlogged and pothole-riddled roads.
The Silent Epidemic: Spines, Necks, Hips & Backs
Whole-body vibration and repetitive jolts are strongly associated with musculoskeletal disorders in riders and drivers. Indian clinicians have flagged a surge of back and spine injuries in pothole seasons (with surgeries in severe cases), while engineering/biomechanics studies link road irregularities to harmful vibration exposure as per ISO 2631-1 [International Organization for Standardization (standard on human exposure to whole-body vibration)]. This isn’t “mild discomfort”; it’s chronic disability and lost productivity.
The Household Hit: Repairs, Replacements & Rising Premiums
- Vehicle Damage is Predictable Physics.
Pavement roughness is the principal driver of vehicle operating costs (VOC): fuel, tyres, spares, suspensions, and time. The World Bank’s HDM/HDM-4 (Highway Development and Management Model, version-4) work and India’s own IRC (Indian Roads Congress) guidance are unequivocal — rough roads multiply user costs sharply.
- Claims Surge as Roads Fail.
Insurers and brokers publicly report double-digit spikes in monsoon-season damage claims, with potholes a major proximate cause (tyres, rims, suspensions, steering). These spikes translate into higher comprehensive premiums and add-on uptake (nil-dep, engine protection), shifting costs from civic failure to citizen finance.
The Industrial Food Chain That Feeds on Failure
- Civil-works Contractors & Bitumen Supply
Frequent “patchwork” beats durable resurfacing for those paid per intervention. Short defect-liability periods and weak performance metrics (few contracts enforce international roughness index targets) encourage thin, short-lived fixes. Auditors repeatedly flag irregularities and undue benefits.
- Auto OEMs, Spares, Tyres, Service Networks
Potholes accelerate wear on tyres, rims, control arms, shocks, bushings, and steering racks. That means more spares turnover, more service visits, more wheel balancing/alignment, and a robust market for suspension parts. (Insurers’ own advisories list pothole damage modes — because they see them every day.)
- Motor Insurers & Garages
Higher frequencies and severities of damage raise loss costs, which then inform premium loadings and push customers toward add-ons. Preferred garage networks and cashless arrangements keep the claims flywheel spinning. (Multiple city reports: monsoon claims up 20–40%.)
- Health Insurers, Hospitals & Diagnostics
Chronic back/neck issues, disc prolapse, and post-crash trauma enlarge the funnel for imaging (MRI/CT), pain clinics, orthopedics, physiotherapy, and long courses of medication — nudging households into health insurance for protection from recurring out-of-pocket risk.
- Tow Trucks, Road Assistance, Body Shops
Each breakdown or crash reinforces an ancillary ecosystem of towing, roadside assistance, and crash repair — another annuity from avoidable road failure.
The “Pothole Economy”: A Back-of-the-Envelope Reality Check
A claim that this economy sits around 1–2% of India’s GDP is a plausible order-of-magnitude estimate, but let’s label it clearly as an approximation. Hard, disaggregated national accounting for “pothole costs” does not exist. What we do know:
- Road crashes alone cost India approx. 3–5% of GDP as per World Bank estimates (lost productivity, medical costs, property damage). Poor road quality is a driver within that.
- Roughness-driven VOC (fuel, tyres, spares, time) is materially higher on poorly maintained roads — HDM/IRC literature is clear on the direction and significance, even when exact national totals are not pinned.
Taken together, the combined economic leakage from crashes, excess vehicle operating costs, medical care, and insurance loadings can credibly sit in the low single digits of GDP. Treat 1–2% as a conservative heuristic within that broader, documented 3–5% crash burden.
How the “Mafia” Logic Works: A Political Economy Flywheel
Note: This is a systemic incentive map, not an allegation against any named individual.
Tendering for the Short Term
Lowest-bid patch contracts, minimal performance bonds, limited defect-liability, and no enforced IRI/roughness targets. Result: quick failures → frequent re-work orders.
- Opacity & Fragmented Accountability
Multiple agencies (PWDs (Public Works Depts), municipal corps, development authorities, utilities cutting trenches) diffuse responsibility. Audits have flagged “undue benefits,” “unfruitful expenditure,” and other irregularities — classic symptoms of weak controls.
- Monsoon as Business Season
Water ingress + poor drainage + cheap cold-mix patches = repeat business. City dashboards routinely show thousands of complaints every monsoon.
- Insurance as Shock Absorber
Claims go up; premiums follow. Consumers pay twice: once in taxes for roads, and again in premiums/repairs for failures.
- Healthcare as Downstream Revenue
Musculoskeletal injuries and crash trauma become a steady pipeline to clinics and hospitals — again, monetizing failure.
Past to Present: A Few Illustrative Cases
- Mumbai–Maharashtra (2018 season & after):
Multiple fatalities and litigation sprees pushed compensation debates and judicial censure; the Bombay High Court called out “gross civic apathy” while ordering payouts in pothole deaths/injuries.
- Bengaluru (2022–2025):
Recurrent deaths of pillion riders thrown by potholes and then run over; recurring citizen protests about “patchwork” repairs timed to events.
- Chennai/TN (2025):
A 74-year-old died after a two-wheeler hit a pothole and both fell — another tragedy in a long chain.
Who Else Benefits (Or Thinks They Do)?
- Fuel Sellers: Higher rolling resistance and stop–go traffic from cratered roads mean more fuel burnt per kilometer. HDM-based studies consistently tie roughness to fuel consumption.
- Aftermarket Accessories & Wheels: Bent rims and damaged tyres stoke demand for replacements and “upgrades.”
- Data/Repair Platforms: Aggregators monetizing the repair surge, selling add-on warranties and roadside assistance.
What Fixes the Incentives (So Roads Stay Fixed)?
- Performance-Based Maintenance Contracts (PBMCs) with IRI Targets
Pay for outcomes (roughness/IRI (International Roughness Index) and defect-free days), not inputs. Enforce stiff penalties, long defect-liability, and blacklisting for repeat failure. (IRC and HDM frameworks already support VOC-linked economics — use them.)
- Full-Depth Rehabilitation Over Cosmetic Patching
Require drainage remediation and base repair; ban cold-mix “quickies” as default. Publish pavement designs and bill-of-materials for public scrutiny.
- Open Tenders, Open Data, Open Audits
Live dashboards of complaints → repair timestamps → independent audits. Publish IRI maps quarterly; crowdsource validation through smartphone-based roughness sensing and AI pothole detection (which is now practical and studied).
- Civic Liability with Teeth
Statutory strict liability for deaths/injuries clearly linked to road defects; time-bound compensation norms and automatic disciplinary review for agency heads after thresholds are breached. Courts have already signaled this direction.
- Insurance alignment
- Tie municipal performance to insurance surcharges (bad-road indices).
- Encourage premium rebates in jurisdictions meeting IRI and safety targets — let citizens feel the dividend of good governance.
- Mandate clearer coverage norms for pothole damage (no fine-print ambush). Industry already tracks damage patterns; policy should reflect reality.
- Material Standards & Lifecycle Funding
Polymer-modified bitumen where appropriate, better compaction, joints, and drainage. Ring-fenced maintenance funds protected from mid-year cuts; independent quality labs sampling cores after every major resurfacing.
- Utilities Coordination
Single trenching windows, utility corridors, and heavy penalties for post-paving cuts without reinstatement to spec.
- Citizen Standing
Fast-track claims for vehicle damage and injuries tied to documented potholes; simple digital workflows with geo-tagged evidence.
A Note on Collusion
It is easy to suspect collusion when the same roads fail the same way, season after season. Public audits have documented irregularities and “undue benefits” in multiple highway/road projects. That said, accusations against specific people require evidence; what we can assert — with evidence — is that current incentive structures reward short-lived fixes and diffuse accountability. Change the incentives, and the “mafia” starves.
What You Can Do ‘Now’
- Document & Report:
Geo-tag photos, preserve bills, and file both civic complaints and insurer claims; escalate to consumer forums if stonewalled. (Several city portals log thousands of pothole complaints each monsoon.)
- Demand IRI Disclosures:
Ask your city to publish quarterly roughness and post-repair audits.
- Push for PBMCs & Liability Laws:
Write to your MLA/municipal councilors with specific asks listed above.
- Protect Your Health:
If you’re a regular rider/driver, especially on two-wheelers, treat persistent back/neck pain early; clinicians are seeing spikes tied to pothole seasons.
Final Thoughts: When ‘Failure’ Becomes a ‘Market’
If a road is designed to last but built to fail, someone profits from the failure. If citizens pay taxes for good roads and then pay premiums and hospital bills for bad ones, democracy has inverted its duty. The economics are clear; the ethics are clearer. The question is not whether India can afford smooth, safe roads – it is whether India can afford the ‘pothole economy’ any longer.
So, who gains when your suspension breaks but accountability doesn’t? Who writes the bill when your back aches, your tyre bursts, and your premium rises? How many monsoons will we fund a repair circus instead of demanding roads that simply, quietly, ‘work’?
Image (c) istock.com
