Analysis

India-US Relations Blowing Hot and Cold: A Review

The United States of America (USA) is often hailed as the oldest democracy in the world while Bharat (India) is undoubtedly the largest democracy with a comprehensive written Constitution incorporating all essential attributes of a genuine democracy. Besides, India is also the oldest civilization in the world while the US, with Europeans as main settlers, has a history of just about four hundred years. Since it's independence from the British in 1947, India and the US have shared a sort of “blow hot blow cold” relationship owing to various geo-political and socio-religious factors despite sharing tag of the largest and oldest democracies, respectively,. However, during a little over last two decades, their relationship had remained more or less stable with a constant improvement irrespective of the change in political regimes in either of the two nations. But of late, a few irritants and reactionary actions of the US government have posed a serious threat to otherwise reasonably stable and harmonious relations between the two countries. It is yet to fully emerge if the current conundrum reflects a permanent tactical change in US policy or just a temporary upset owing to the flamboyant ways of functioning of the US President Donald J. Trump. In the following paragraphs, the author proposes to analyze these issues in a more precise manner.

 A Brief History India-US Relations

 Although the US boasts of being the oldest democracy albeit with a total history of just about four centuries but in the context of the Western World, actually the ancient Greece is considered as the birthplace of democracy with people’s direct participation in governance since 5th century BCE. Then in medieval Europe during the 18th century, the French Revolution (1789 CE) played a pivotal role in shaping modern democratic ideals and founding base of the modern Western democracy. As for the US is concerned, although the declaration of Independence on July 1776 ushered in limited democratic rights but evolution of more inclusive democracy with full-fledged fundamental rights, equality and representation took a considerable time to evolve in the country. Conversely, as for India is concerned, the ancient roots of democracy are as old as 7th century BCE with the Licchavis of Vaishali (present day north Bihar) organized as Ganasanghas with the people’s participation. In fact, the earliest evidence of the democratic tenets in India are far more old finding reference in the oldest Hindu scripture “Rigveda”, the "Sabha" and "Samiti" in the society playing crucial democratic role in governance.

 Other than just a passing reference, the author does not wish to dive deep in the detailed history of India-US relations since 1947; instead, he would prefer to focus on the bilateral relationship as shaped up during the 21st century. After the 2nd World War, the US had emerged as the most powerful country in the world order with only the USSR as its main challenger. Sufficient evidence exists to vindicate that of the two largest Asian countries, namely the Communist China and Democratic India, the successive US governments were keen to keep India on their side for a considerable period. However, India had achieved independence from the colonialism of the Western powers (mainly the British) after the long years of struggle, and apparently, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was not inclined to be subservient or part of the colonial powers' bloc. Accordingly, India then preferred the path of political non-alignment rather than aligning to the Western or Eastern bloc. Although Mr. Nehru professed the ideology of non-alignment but, in effect, owing to his own socialist leanings, he preferred forging stronger bonds and closer relationship with the communist countries like China and the USSR (now Russia), even at the cost of compromising some geopolitical interests to the former. Later on, the Chinese betrayal in 1962 led to an ignominious beating and a loss of significant Indian territory in 1962, compelling Mr Nehru to review his foreign policy looking for a closer relationship with the West, albeit only to a limited extent.

 Nonetheless, the Russia continued and proved to be a time-tested and dependable ally of India for all time to come. The US turned towards Pakistan and included her in their camp mainly for own geopolitical interests in the region. Consequently, Pakistan was granted entry into the strategic organizations like the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in 1954 and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1959. Pakistan stayed as a loose partner of the US under these treaties deriving several strategic benefits while India stayed more or less neutral, avoiding a formal alignment with any block. As a part of the Non-Aligned Movement as its founding member, India stayed more or less neutral throughout the Cold War period. The consequent US alienation and hostility towards India grew to such an extent that President Nixon even detailed their Navy’s largest 7th Fleet to take side with Pakistan in 1971 Bangladesh liberation war, threatening the Indian Armed Forces' operation in the Eastern Pakistan (now Bangladesh). The imminent threat was, however, neutralized with Russia dispatching its warships in the region, obligated under the Joint Indo-Russian Friendship Treaty of 1971. This bitterness between the bilateral relationship of India and the US continued until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the two countries started developing closer ties only thereafter.

Synergy in Bilateral Relations in 21st Century

The cold war period ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, establishing the US as undisputed only superpower in the world during the early 1990s. Following the nuclear tests carried out by the Vajpayee Government in May 1998, the US imposed several sanctions on India particularly impacting the technology, trade and defence cooperation. However, such sanctions were lifted in 2001, and thereafter bilateral relations between the two countries have consistently improved and by and large remained stable. In the aforesaid context, names of President George W. Bush (2001-09) and President Barack Obama (2009-17) are worth mentioning, who realized the importance of India as emerging global power in the 21st century and adopted a more pragmatic stance towards India to improve and strengthen the growing partnership, which inter alia included bilateral trade and investment, co-operation on global security matters, inclusion of India in decision-making on matters of global importance, upgraded representation in trade and investment forums like World Bank, IMF, APEC, admission into multilateral export control regimes such as MTCR, as also support for admission in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and joint-manufacturing through technology, and so on.

During the last eleven years, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge of governance in India since 2014, the strategic cooperation between India and the US further deepened with the latter proclaiming India as a “Major Defence Partner”, the two together extending their cooperation through multilateral groups like the Quad and I2U2 Group. During the first stint of President Donald Trump (2017-21), a sort of euphoria had been generated at the initiative of the US President and Indian Prime Minister after the latter’s “Howdy Modi event in Houston”, promoting cultural and business ties, and the former’s India visit in early 2020. During almost the lacklustre tenure of US President Joe Biden (2021-25) too, the bilateral ties and cooperation remained on track although lacked any significant development. In his second tenure starting January 2025, Mr Trump initially appeared quite upbeat about his country’s future relations with India. However, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack and consequent Operation Sindoor by India to avenge the death of innocent Indian (mostly Hindus) tourists by punishing perpetrators of the terror act and their sponsors turned out to be milestone in current downslide in the bilateral relations of the two countries. In a nutshell, the following major milestone events or agreements materialized between two countries in various sectors since January 2001.

I.  Strategic Partnership and Cooperation in Defence & Security

  • General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) signed in 2002, enabling technology cooperation and sharing of the classified information.

  • Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) launched in 2004 facilitating cooperation in civil nuclear, space, and high-tech trade.

  • Both countries signed a Strategic Partnership agreement in 2005, marking a significant enabler shift in the bilateral ties.

  • India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement signed in 2008 for the nuclear trade and peaceful uses of the nuclear technology.

  • To facilitate defence cooperation, military supplies and repairs, the US recognized India as a Major Defence Partner (MDP), and the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and was signed in 2016 to strengthen defence ties.

  • For a secure communication between the two countries, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) signed in 2018.
     
  • The Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed in 2020 as an enabler of the geospatial cooperation between the two countries.

  • The Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) and Liaison Officers agreement signed in 2024 to further strengthening defene ties.

II.  Economic and Trade Relations

  • The US-India Economic Dialogue was launched in 2005 launched for a seamless cooperation and promotion of trade, commerce and investment.

  • The US became India's largest trading partner by 2021, and the bilateral trade reached over $191 billion in 2022.

  • The two countries resolved several WTO disputes in 2023 to further enhance trade cooperation.

III.  Technology and Innovation

  • Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) was launched in 2022 with a view to promoting cooperation in Artificial Intelligence, quantum, and semiconductors.

  • The two countries agreed to collaborate for the establishment of a semiconductor fabrication plant in India to produce chips for national security applications and next-generation telecom.

In addition, following the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston of the socio-cultural nature in 2019 and subsequent President Trump’s New Delhi visit in 2020, people to people contact between the two countries too had shown a significant increase in the recent years. For instance, Indians made up approximately 71% of all H-1B visas in the US during the year 2024, a large number of which were IT professionals.

2025: Downturn in Relationship

While President Donald Trump took oath on Bible like his predecessor (In Indian democracy, an oath is taken on the Constitution to uphold the Constitution and democratic principles), everything was seemingly going on well. During the current tenure, Mr. Trump has time and again reiterated in his public speeches that he will make USA great again; so, it is implied that he may have had some new ideas in mind to achieve this stated goal. He did mention India and some other countries in the context of high tariff on imports off and on which, in his opinion, hinders the prospects of the US exports to these countries and resultant unfavourable trade balance. Besides, after his assumption of office in January 2025, President Trump also made a strong bid for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, and to justify his candidature, he and his team aggressively started projecting him as a global peacemaker endeavouring to stop wars between countries all over the world. Following the Pahalgam terror attack on 22 April 2025, India started reprisal with a strong punitive action code-named “Operation Sindoor” against the perpetrators and their patrons (Pakistani military) in Pakistan on 7 May.

A ceasefire over the war hostilities between India and Pakistan was arrived at on 10th May 2020 after a formal talk between the DGMOs (Director General of Military Operations) of the two sides. President Trump claimed credit for this ceasefire while the Indian military and the External Affairs Ministry put forth that the stated truce was reached between the two countries at the request of Pakistan’s DGMO. While both Pakistani Army General and Prime Minister promptly endorsed US President’s claim over the ceasefire recommending his name for the Nobel Peace prize, India remained polite but consistent and firm on their stand of denying any third-party role. It is difficult to say as to what became the real motive or trigger but following the aforesaid developments, a barrage of scathing attacks and allegations from President Trump and key US officials followed against India. In a continued spiral downturn, President personally signed executive orders imposing 50% tariff on Indian imports and blaming Indian crude oil purchase from Russia as the cause for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. Here the notable fact is that compared to India, China is importing more oil from Russia and many West European NATO allies of the US too have continued trade with Russia during the same period.

Recent scathing statements and actions taken by President Trump and his administration have created noticeable friction in the Indo-US relations, primarily through trade and geopolitical decisions which are viewed as detrimental to India's interests in the economic, political and military spheres. The developments and indicators listed here, which are against India's national interests, suggest a significant down-slide in India-US relations.

I.  Trade and Economy

In August 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, which was quickly followed by an additional 25% penal tariff, bringing the total tariff to 50% on most Indian goods. However, some sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, energy and critical minerals were exempted from the additional tariffs and excluded as of now from this levy. These steep tariffs are reckoned as the highest that the U.S. has imposed on any major trading partner in the global scenario. The only other country in such a higher tariff bracket is Brazil on date. As indicated by the US officials, this tariff increase is aimed to address the current US trade deficit with India as also the alleged "unfair" trade practices and non-monetary trade barriers. The reason as given by the US administration for the additional 25% tariff is alleged Indian oil purchase from Russia which according to the US President and his administration is helping Russia in continuing and sustaining their war with Ukraine, appears to be absolutely misplaced narrative, rather a false allegation, as China is far larger importer of Russian oil but it has not been penalized, and that US and its European NATO allies are still continuing trade with Russia.

As the US is among the top major trade partners of India, this increase in tariff is likely to have a direct adverse impact on several major Indian export sectors such as textiles, gems, jewellery, leather, and auto parts. This may also lead to a potential drop in India's GDP growth and export competitiveness over a period. Earlier, the Trump administration had also revoked India's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits, which facilitated a reduced tariff for the specified Indian products, and this has not been restored so far. Apparently, this action has purportedly been taken to constrain India’s energy imports as the additional 25% penal tariff is specifically linked to the said India's high-volume oil trade with Russia. The US has pressured India to align with their sanctions reducing its oil imports from Russia. India has so far resisted this pressure, citing its sovereign right and national interest in securing affordable energy for the country. President Trump didn’t stop here as he has been also threatening to impose tariffs up to 250% on certain Indian goods.

II.  Military and Security

In the context of the “Operation Sindoor” launched by India in May 2025 to punish terrorists and their patrons, President Trump claims that India and Pakistan were on the brink of nuclear war and that he successfully intervened to prevent it. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and General Asim Munir promptly dittoed and appreciated the role of President Trump in the ceasefire and even recommended his candidature for a Nobel Peace Prize. Despite constant Pakistani bid to internationalize it at various forums, India has for long maintained a consistent stand that it will never accept any third-party role or intervention on Kashmir, which is non-negotiable and an integral part of the country. In the aforesaid context, it is relevant here to mention that on 10th May 2025, Indian top military brass had categorically mentioned in a press conference that the ceasefire was agreed to between India and Pakistan during the direct talk between the DGMOs of two sides, which was organized at the request of Pakistani DGMO. Later on, the External Affairs Ministry spokesperson too formally endorsed it, ruling out any third-party role in the ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

To this, the US President initially admitted that he had no direct role in the ceasefire but his country had a role in facilitating it. Ever since, he has time and again stated at various forums that he actually brokered peace between India and Pakistan. He even claimed that he personally spoke to Indian Prime Minister Modi and threatened that he will stop all trade unless India immediately stops hostilities and, following this, the ceasefire was achieved. Although US President’s cravings for the Nobel Peace remained unfulfilled at least for this time, but he has tirelessly claimed credit umpteen times for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan during the last six months. Apart from the Indian military and MEA making their position clear in unambiguous term, Prime Minister Modi too made a statement in the Parliament during the Monsoon Session denying his talk with President in this regard. However, India has avoided any direct reaction or rebuttal to the US President’s claim. It can be safely concluded that Pakistan’s endorsement of President Trump’s claim and India’s principled denial have certainly impacted bilateral relations to the current state.

Apart from the oil imports, the US administration has also expressed their reservations and concern about India’s ongoing defence cooperation with Russia. Although in the recent past, the defence cooperation between the US and India has generally been a strong point albeit with some nagging issues in progress of the acquisition of military assets, duel-use technology hurdles despite India’s elevated status for accessing US technology, stricter export controls posing problems for India’s indigenous defence manufacturing goals (under “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative), etc., the recent downturn in relations may further complicate the ongoing military and security ties. There are already unconfirmed reports about the paused or at least slowing down of advance-stage talks in the context of certain purchases such as Stryker combat vehicles, Javelin missiles, and Boeing reconnaissance aircraft signalling India’s displeasure over the tariff and allied strains.

Under these uncertainties, a silver lining is that the US and India have signed a defence pact on 31 October 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia that provides a 10-year framework agreement aiming to a long-term strategic cooperation strengthening mutual defence cooperation, promote regional security, and augment military collaboration between the two countries. This pact is likely to improve the defence trade, technical cooperation and joint military exercises. One of the important objects of the agreement is to promote stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region while the current instability had cast doubts on the future effectiveness of even multinational initiatives such as the QUAD. The point cannot be denied that in spite of the elevated status for sharing and accessing high technology, the actual cooperation on ground and trade volume in dual-purpose goods has remained only modest, and concerns exist about the delays in already contracted defence supplies such as jet engines and the lack of progress in joint production plans.

III. Diplomacy and Politics

Of the two major Asian nations, China is carrying out much more oil and energy imports from Russia compared to India, but President Trump and his administration, for the reasons best known to them, have chosen India to single out for criticism, and imposition of sanctions and tariffs blaming it for funding the Russia-Ukraine war. While indulging in tirade against India for weeks together, some of the key US officials such as President Trump’s Trade Adviser Peter Navarro, while castigating India, had gone to the extent of accusing India indirectly funding Russia’s war in Ukraine through discounted oil purchases, and that Brahmins are profiting at the expense of common Indians. Some political analysts, who understand the geopolitics of the region, have opined that this was an attempt by the belligerent US official to create political disaffection and upheaval in India through the caste divide. Quite clearly such statements from a country boasting strategic partnership was unwelcome and contradictory to the strengthening of India-US relations. An excerpt from Peter Navarro’s interview with the Fox News is quoted here:

“Look, Modi’s a great leader. I don’t understand why he’s getting into bed with Putin and Xi Jinping when he’s the biggest democracy in the world. So I would just simply say to the Indian people: please, understand what’s going on here. You’ve got Brahmins profiteering at the expense of the Indian people. We need that to stop. Yeah, and we’ll be watching that closely.”.

In the context of India-US relations, the recent posturing by the US President has been frustrating in the context of Pakistan. Initially, he tried to put India and Pakistan on the same footing during the “Operation Sindoor” citing the latter as a great nation, and General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as great leaders, and, subsequently, he hosted Asim Munir twice in the White House in a short time, which is an unprecedented development. Pakistan’s reputation as a failed nation and historically a country sponsoring global terrorism is well known and not something that needs any new evidence or vindication. While the role of Pakistan in sponsoring terrorism and patronizing most of the dreaded terrorists wanted by India for heinous crimes has remained the major cause of friction and periodical conflicts, by equating Pakistan with India, President Trump overlooked even the very fact that it was Pakistan which sheltered Al-Queda leader Osama Bin Laden for many years, who was responsible for September 11 attacks on America leading to the death of nearly 3,000 people, over 6,000 injuries and enormous economic loss.  

President Trump’s “America First” policy is well taken and every nation has right to prioritize its interests but his transactional diplomacy and rhetoric in foreign relations certainly causes a concern for India due to its unpredictability and non-seriousness. His recent recurring criticism of India’s tariff and citing its economy as “dead” or calling it a “disaster” is not only in bade taste but also disrespectful of the largest democracy and a proclaimed strategic partner. It is not a secret or flashing news now that while the major economies of the world like the US (2.6%), UK (1.3%), France (0.7%) and Germany (0.2%), etc., were crawling at turtle pace in 2024-25, India maintained an estimated GDP growth at 6.5% driven by investment, private consumption, industrial growth and a robust agriculture sector (GDP growth 7.4% in last quarter). Even China with about 4.8% GDP growth during the same period is far behind India in this context.

In fact, many political actions and diplomatic missteps of the Trump administration have strained mutual understanding and trust between the two countries in the recent months.  President Trump expressed serious concern about the US IT companies hiring Indian professionals to run their business. He even criticized them for building factories and hiring workers in India and asked IT giants like Microsoft and Google to prioritize it for the American people; however, now he has also acknowledged the need for skilled foreign workers. Till China and India fast emerged as global players, the US had maintained complete economic hegemony and dominance of the US dollar. Instead of realizing the changing scenario and commensurate finetuning of own policies, the Trump administration is blaming emerging global cooperation and groupings like BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation, etc. President Trump has particularly expressed concern for India’s BRICS membership, viewing it a challenge for American geopolitics, economy, and dollar as well.

In the earlier stint too, President Trump had expressed a desire to mediate on Kashmir issue. India has maintained a consistent stand for decades now rejecting any third-party intervention or mediation role in its dispute with Pakistan. India has also emphasized for a synergy among nations dealing with terrorism from time to time at various international forums. India has firmly denied any mediation in ceasefire with Pakistan during the recently concluded “Operation Sindoor” in May 2025. Notwithstanding above, President Trump repeatedly claims credit for brokering a ceasefire in India-Pakistan conflict, which certainly constitutes a serious irritant and breach of trust and mutual understanding. In fact, President Trump’s negative rhetoric calling India’s economy as “dead” while criticizing India-Russia trade, and his reference to the US-India trade a “disaster” have caused a national backlash in India.

Other Developments

  • The successive US regimes welcomed Indian professionals to work for the nation’s development and growth, particularly in IT, medicine and advanced research sectors. The introduction of stricter immigration policies, including potential sharp increases in H-1B visa fees (which has been predominantly used by Indian nationals), is likely to hit the Indian professionals most. This may slow down the Indian IT sector growth, potentially accelerate a “reverse brain drain” and cause serious hardship to visa holders and their families.

  • According to reports, Trump administration is further exploring ways to impose additional penalties citing concerns over Indian trade practices and policies.

  • The current downturn mainly caused by President Trump’s ceasefire claims and imposition of high tariff, including penal 25% penal tariff on account of Indian oil purchase from Russia (US cannot dictate sovereign India on its foreign policy) has a shadow on India-US trade talks too. Although either of the two sides have not revealed details but periodical utterances of responsible officials suggest that the US attempt to push their agricultural and dairy products for a greater access in the Indian market is causing hurdles and strain on early settlement.

  • Pro-Pakistan measures taken by President Trump and his administration such as low tariff for Pakistan despite its global image as a terrorist nation, changed US stance on Pakistan’s nuclear programme and strategic alignment bearing potential implications on the regional security and stability, are likely to pose concern with a long-term negative impact on India.

Understanding President Trump & His Impact

The long-term relationship between two nations is usually the product of mutual respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in each other’s domestic matters, peaceful resolution of disputes, equality and benefit, and bilateral cooperation based on mutual trust and shared interests. While political regimes often based on different ideologies change but such change normally does not have any radical impact on politics and diplomacy between two nations. However, based on personal preferences often driven by whims and fancies, the way President Trump has tried globally to deal with friend and adversary nations, he has drawn both criticism and acclaim domestically and from foreign countries as well. Besides, his personal indiscriminate utterances and actions appear to be main impacting factors for the current downslide of the US-India relations, which has been adversely commented upon even by several US strategists and politicians of earlier regimes. Hence a brief analysis of President Trump's personal attributes is given here.

 Positive Attributes: He is a charismatic public speaker and communicator with a foresight to connect well with his base and read his audience; seen as a disruptor of norms with an ability to flout norms, challenging established political protocols and playbooks; a strong leader bold, self-assured and decisive yet enough flexible too if the situation demands; and a good number of Americans express confidence in his ability to make good decisions about the economic policies for the country. During his first stint (2017-21), his administration’s National Defence Strategy and deregulation in the environmental, financial, and education sectors had received a wide appreciation within the country.

 Negative Attributes: Critics point out him as a me-centric (Ego-driven) leader by temperament, lacking empathy, refusing to take responsibility for errors, and with a tendency to blame others calling names; he is frequently found making false or misleading statements disregarding facts, some people cite it as unprecedented in American politics; he is found so often making divisive comments and actions at times suggesting racist, or even misogynistic, inclination. He habitually cites people and nations as “great nation” and "great leader" without a genuine discretion or seriousness. He has been often criticized for weakening international alliances and order. His actions have frequently posed legal and ethical issues, leading to numerous investigations and lawsuits in country during past. His economic policies such as the current tariff regime is counterproductive, making more adversaries than friends. Detractors often describe his averments and actions as authoritarian contributing to democratic backsliding. Also, at times, there has been public and professional apprehensions and speculations about his age, health and mental sharpness.

 It is clarified here that the aforesaid attributes are not this author’s personal opinion; instead, it represent what his admirers and critics have opined from time to time. However, this author feels that a truly graceful achiever would avoid shouting announcement of his good deeds and achievements from the rooftop; instead, like a gentleman, he will allow others to acknowledge and appreciate it. India is the oldest civilization on planet on date and cultured enough to be grateful and acknowledge kind deeds of any other country and its leadership, if so warranted.

Indian Response to US Actions and Rhetoric

India doesn't believe in rhetoric and propaganda in its diplomacy and overseas relations. Accordingly, instead of being reactive with “tit for tat’ measures, India has so far responded with to American negativity with measured restraints and firm diplomacy simultaneously reaffirming the importance of bilateralism. For instance, despite President Trump’s rhetoric of acting a peacemaker with his alleged mediation role in India-Pakistan conflict, Prime Minister Modi preferred not to engage himself in a denial game. Instead, the MEA spokesperson for once officially rejected any claim of mediation in ceasefire between India and Pakistan, clarifying that the ceasefire was achieved through the bilateral talks between the DGMOs of two countries, without any external involvement and at the request of Pakistan. India has consistently emphasized its commitment to resolving issues with Pakistan through bilateral engagement, ruling out any third-party intervention or participation. Prime Minister Modi had earlier conveyed this Indian resolve to President Trump too in one-to-one talks.

India has opted to a strong messaging to Pakistan and other countries, including the United Nations, that the country will not tolerate terrorism on its soil, any such act involving foreign terrorists and their patrons will be treated as an act of war, and in this endeavour it will take every essential measure to protect its citizens and national interests. It has very lucidly reiterated that issues related to Jammu & Kashmir are bilateral matters and shall be resolved between India and Pakistan without any external involvement. India has also rejected attempts by any country to internationalize the Kashmir issue or to suggest a third-party mediation. As for the bilateral relationship with the US is concerned, India is inclined to maintain strong ties despite their differences, and seeking strategic partnership and cooperation in the areas of mutual interest without compromising own sovereignty and vital national interests.

To make sure that the US tariff does not unduly hurt the economic growth and GDP, India has made course correction by revising its own inland taxation and is exploring new vistas for the export of the Indian goods. In fact, any increase in tariff on imports serves as a double-edged weapon hurting both the countries. While it will make the export of goods costlier thereby jeopardizing the prospects of the seller country in the ongoing competition in the international trade, it will also hurt the consumers of the buyer country where consumers will have to shell out extra money to buy the same product for their use. In the present case, the war between Russia and Ukraine started more than three years ago and the NATO countries are primarily accountable for the fault lines as they have been vying for years to bring Ukraine to their umbrella (bloc) despite constant Russian apprehension and categorical assertions that it won’t accept NATO threat close to its border. The US and other Western countries need to take course correction at their end rather than blaming and interfering in the sovereign rights and internal matters of India.

Silver Lining

Despite current troubled relations, the primary “silver lining” in the bilateral relationship of the US and India is the shared democracy and a long-term understanding of their mutual strategic needs, particularly to counter the growing economic hegemony, arm-twisting and unethical influence of China worldwide, and more particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The current tariff issue may be an irritant and spoiler but two countries are natural allies too with stakes and shared partnership in many crucial areas. Key areas providing strong reasons and justification for a continued partnership are their shared democratic principles with pluralistic societies, defence cooperation owing to common security threats perceptions in the obtaining world order in general and Asia-Pacific in particular, and economic interdependence in various sectors, and above all a close people-to-people ties owing to many shared values. Even in the context of investment in businesses, it is no more one way as during the past few decades, the Indian businesses too have made significant investments in the US economy (around $40 billion according to an estimate).

The chief irritants and hurdles responsible for the recent down-slide in the US-India relations appear to be US President driven indiscriminate imposition of high tariff on Indian imports and his frenzy of claiming credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May 2025 time and again despite the position firmly clarified by the External Affair Ministry in India. However, a few positive developments since October 2025 serve a good omen auguring hope for the normalization of relationship. Two countries have recently signed a 10-year defence pact for further strengthening their defence ties and to work for joint promotion of the regional security. Then the US President himself has given hint that the trade negotiations between two countries are progressing well towards a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), with a goal to expand trade to $500 billion by 2030. Also, there are hints of technological collaboration between two countries in technologies like Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors. One hopes that the heat and dust caused following the imposition of the US tariff and flair up of India-Pakistan hostilities will gradually settle down, and the US President will take initiative for a course correction to ensure normalcy of bilateral relations with an optimal bilateral tariff structure for trade.

15-Nov-2025

More by :  Dr. Jaipal Singh


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